澳大利亚前银行经济学家保罗·布洛克厄姆近日发出警告，澳大利亚房价下跌不太可能在2028年之前开始反弹1。他指出，房地产市场已处于衰退初期，只有当市场参与者相信利率即将下降时市场才会好转1。
房价下行压力持续显现。悉尼和墨尔本房价今年已下跌超过3%1，拍卖清算率徘徊在50%或以下1。当前澳大利亚储备银行现金利率为4.35%1，市场预期储备银行可能在明年晚些时候开始降息1。与此同时，6月份标题通胀率为3.8%1，7月通胀数据预计将降至3.3%1。澳大利亚统计局将于7月30日发布月度通胀报告1。
Australia's housing market faces an extended downturn, with house prices unlikely to begin rebounding before 2028, according to Paul Bloxham, former chief economist at HSBC Australia.1 The market recovery will depend on the Reserve Bank initiating interest rate cuts, Bloxham warned, as the real estate sector has already entered an early recession phase.1
Sydney and Melbourne have already experienced declines exceeding 3% this year, while auction clearance rates have slumped to 50% or below.1 With the current cash rate standing at 4.35%, market participants remain hesitant about committing to purchases.1 Bloxham emphasized that sentiment will only improve once participants believe rate reductions are imminent.1 Market expectations point to possible rate cuts later next year, though February rate adjustments are viewed as a 50-50 proposition.1 June headline inflation stood at 3.8%, with July figures projected to ease to 3.3%.1
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