澳大利亚首次购房者对抵押贷款的需求出现显著下滑。[1]6月份首次购房者抵押贷款需求同比下降17.2%，较前月5月的13.4%跌幅进一步扩大。[1]相比之下，4月的同比跌幅仅为2.9%，显示需求下降的速度在加快。[1]投资者同样在退出市场，其抵押贷款需求在5月同比下降9.8%，6月进一步下滑至12.7%。[1]
高利率、价格下跌担忧和政策变化共同驱动了这一趋势。[1]虽然悉尼和墨尔本上季度房价已下跌超过3%，且银行预计全国房价将进一步下跌5-10%，但这些因素并未吸引首次购房者入市。[1]许多潜在购房者采取观望态度。[1]数据分析公司Equifax首席解决方案官Kevin James表示："人们正在等待看利率和价格会发生什么。"[1]Domain首席住宅经济学家Nicola Powell则指出，首次购房者对市场前景心存顾虑，称"他们不想在周五买房，却发现周一房子就贬值了"。[1]5月联邦预算改革也加剧了投资者的退出。[1]
值得注意的是，2025年年末需求曾出现反弹，其中10月首次购房者需求同比增长13.7%，12月增长17.1%，表明市场前景仍存在不确定性。[1]
First-time home buyers have dramatically retreated from Australia's property market, with mortgage demand falling 17.2 percent year-over-year in June, according to recent data [1]. This sharp decline represents a significant acceleration from earlier months, when demand had dropped 13.4 percent in May and 2.9 percent in April [1].
The pullback reflects a confluence of pressures on prospective owners. Rising interest rates, concerns about further price declines, and reform measures announced in the May federal budget have prompted many first-time buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]. Investment property demand has also weakened, falling 9.8 percent year-over-year in May and 12.7 percent in June, as investors similarly reassess market conditions [1]. Recent price falls in major markets—with Sydney and Melbourne experiencing declines exceeding three percent last quarter—have further dampened appetite [1].
Industry observers suggest uncertainty about the trajectory of both rates and prices is the primary driver of hesitation. Equifax's Chief Solutions Officer Kevin James noted that "people are waiting to see what will happen with interest rates and prices" [1]. Domain's Chief Residential Economist Nicola Powell emphasized the timing concern among buyers, stating, "They don't want to buy on Friday only to find the house has depreciated by Monday" [1]. Banks have warned that national home prices could decline a further five to ten percent [1].