澳大利亚房价连跌六月，专家预警可能再跌10-15%

澳大利亚房产市场正经历显著下行。国家房产价值从3月峰值下跌5.2%至9月，已连续6个月下滑1。这波跌势的主要驱动因素是澳大利亚储备银行今年第四次上调利率，市场进一步预期11月或2027年前至少还会再涨一次1。

房价下行的幅度或将超出预期。Corelogic研究主任Tim Lawless认为，总体下跌10-15%是"相当合理的估计"1，这远超以往下行周期。相比之下，自2020年以来房价曾累计上升78%1。房地产交易也在收缩，Westpac报告交易量同比下跌17%1。地域差异明显，悉尼房价前四分位下跌幅度比后四分位高5.3个百分点，墨尔本的差距则为6.6个百分点1。

这轮下跌对多方面造成影响。参加联邦政府5%首付计划的购房者面临负资产风险1。同时，房价下行将冲击州政府税收——新南威尔士州和维多利亚州的印花税分别占州内收入的18.5-22.5%1。不过，拥有家庭资助的首次购房者在购房成本方面可能获得机会1。

National property values have declined 5.2% from their March peak through September, marking six consecutive months of retreat 1. The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year has emerged as the primary driver of the market slowdown, with further rate increases expected by November or before the end of 2027 1.

Experts anticipate the downturn will prove more severe than historical precedent suggests. Tim Lawless, research director at CoreLogic, characterizes a total decline of 10-15% as "a fairly reasonable estimate" for the cycle ahead 1. This projection carries particular weight given that property values have surged 78% cumulatively since 2020 1. The market contraction has already rippled through transaction volumes, with Westpac reporting a year-on-year decline of 17% 1. The downturn poses distinct risks for first-time buyers, particularly those who purchased under the federal government's 5% deposit scheme, who now face exposure to negative equity 1.

State governments dependent on property-related revenue face mounting pressure from the correction. In New South Wales and Victoria, stamp duty accounts for 18.5-22.5% of state government revenue respectively as of the 2022-23 financial year 1. Price declines are not uniform across markets: in Sydney, the top quartile of properties has fallen 5.3 percentage points more than the bottom quartile, while Melbourne shows a 6.6 percentage point differential 1.