澳大利亚央行连续加息已严重削弱购房者的借贷能力，尽管房价出现回调。[1]自1月以来，平均收入者的借贷能力下降了35,400澳元，而计划联合购房的情侣购房者借贷能力下跌幅度更达70,700澳元。[1]2月、3月和5月的三次加息分别使个人借贷能力下降12,200澳元、11,800澳元和11,400澳元，情侣购房者相应下降24,400澳元、23,600澳元和22,700澳元。[1]
房价虽有所下滑，但其改善效果被利率上升完全抵消。[1]墨尔本和悉尼房价分别较峰值下跌5.3%和5.1%。[1]国家澳大利亚银行预测2026年全国首都城市房价将集体下跌5%，其中悉尼跌幅最大可达10%，年底中位价格估计为1,452,024澳元。[1]
Canstar分析师Sally Tindall表示："虽然房价下跌对想要进入市场的人来说可能看起来是利好，但更高的利率使借贷预算陷入困境。"[1]若再加息一次，个人借贷能力将进一步下降至46,300澳元，情侣购房者将下降至92,500澳元。[1]市场预计将在2027年末出现小幅复苏。[1]
While Australian property prices have begun declining, rising interest rates have simultaneously eroded buyers' borrowing capacity, leaving affordability largely unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia's consecutive rate increases since January have reduced borrowing power by $35,400 for average individual income earners and $70,700 for couples [1]. The February rate rise alone decreased individual borrowing capacity by $12,200 and couples' by $24,400, with subsequent March and May increases further constraining purchasing power by $11,800 and $11,400 respectively for individuals, and $23,600 and $22,700 for couples [1].
Major cities have already experienced notable price corrections. Melbourne and Sydney house prices have fallen 5.3% and 5.1% respectively from their peaks [1]. Sydney is anticipated to see steeper declines, with forecasts predicting a full-year price drop of 10% and a median price of approximately $1,452,024 by year-end [1]. The National Australia Bank projects that capital city property prices across the nation will decline by 5% throughout 2026 [1]. As analyst Sally Tindall noted, "While falling property prices may look like a win for people trying to get into the market, higher interest rates are keeping borrowing budgets in a bind" [1]. Should the central bank implement one additional rate increase, individual borrowing capacity would fall to $46,300 and couples' to $92,500 [1]. Market analysts expect a modest recovery to emerge by late 2027 [1].