澳大利亚维多利亚州即将于11月举行州选举，两份最新民调揭示了该州政治格局的新变化。Redbridge民调（7月28日至8月1日）显示联盟党获得30%支持率、工党23%、一国党22%，换算为两党制基础后联盟党领先工党53-47 [1]；Freshwater民调（7月31日至8月3日）则显示联盟党同样获得30%、工党25%、一国党22%，两党制基础后联盟党领先52-48 [1]。两份民调均出现在本·卡罗尔接替杰辛塔·艾伦担任总理之后。
一国党的支持率相比6月出现明显下滑。该党在6月的民调支持率为27-25%，已下降至目前的22% [1]。与此同时，联盟党领导人杰西·威尔逊在个人支持度上表现较强，其净好感度达+13至+18，并在州长职位偏好上领先卡罗尔，分别为32-19或48-27 [1]。卡罗尔本人的净好感度为-15至-7，虽然较前任艾伦的-42和-45有所改善，但仍为负值 [1]。一国党领导人保琳·汉森在维多利亚州的净好感度为-17 [1]。
Two recent surveys of Victorian voters ahead of the state election scheduled for late November show the Coalition holding a commanding lead over Labor on a two-party-preferred basis.[1] According to a Redbridge poll conducted from July 28 to August 1, the Coalition attracted 30 percent support compared to Labor's 23 percent, translating to a 53-47 two-party-preferred advantage.[1] A Freshwater poll taken from July 31 to August 3 produced similarly favorable results for the Coalition, with 30 percent support to Labor's 25 percent, yielding a 52-48 two-party-preferred margin.[1]
One Nation's position has weakened considerably, with support declining from between 25 and 27 percent in June to 22 percent in both recent surveys.[1] The shift appears connected to changes in state leadership, with Premier Ben Carroll showing improved net favorability ratings of -15 in the Redbridge poll and -7 in the Freshwater poll, representing a substantial improvement from his predecessor Jacinta Allen's ratings of -42 and -45 respectively.[1] Coalition leader Jesse Wilkins maintains a strong net favorability ranging from +13 to +18 and leads Carroll significantly on preferred premier, with voters favoring Wilkins 32-19 or 48-27 depending on the survey.[1] One Nation leader Pauline Hanson recorded a net favorability of -17 in Victoria specifically.[1]
