美国总统特朗普在过去五个月内反复宣布暂停和恢复对伊朗的军事打击，形成了一种循环往复的模式。[1]这种言行不一致的做法已成为美伊冲突的显著特征，并导致油价和基本商品价格飙升。[1]
自4月以来，特朗普多次威胁进行大规模空袭，随后又在数小时或数天内宣布取消。[1]4月7日，美国与伊朗同意实现两周停火，特朗普在截止时间前不到两小时才宣布此事。[1]两周后的4月21日，他宣布无限期延长停火，但这一停火仅维持至5月8日，之后美国对伊朗油轮展开打击。[1]5月18日，特朗普以严肃谈判正在进行为由暂停军事行动，然而到了5月27日，打击行动再次开始。[1]
紧张局势在6月中旬升级。[1]6月11日，特朗普威胁"今晚非常猛烈地"打击伊朗，但数小时后因谈判取得突破而宣布取消。[1]6月17日，他签署初步协议并开启60天谈判期限，但同时表示"如果我不喜欢就会继续轰炸"。[1]7月7日，特朗普在北约峰会期间启动新的空袭行动，在随后13天内进行了密集打击。[1]7月27日，特朗普宣布暂停两周密集空袭以给谈判机会。[1]到了8月1日，他先表示将"非常猛烈地"打击伊朗，随后又因中东盟国达成协议参数而取消空袭。[1]
President Trump has made a pattern of publicly announcing pauses in military operations against Iran, only to resume strikes shortly thereafter. [1] Over a five-month period marked by escalating tension, the U.S. leader has repeatedly threatened massive air campaigns before canceling them, creating a cycle of unpredictability that has driven oil prices and basic commodity costs sharply upward. [1]
The pattern began on April 7, when Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran less than two hours before the deadline expired. [1] By April 21, he declared an indefinite extension of the truce, though strikes on Iranian oil tankers resumed after May 8. [1] On May 18, Trump cited serious ongoing negotiations as justification for halting military operations, but attacks resumed by May 27. [1]
Throughout June, the contradictions intensified. On June 11, Trump threatened to strike Iran "very hard tonight" before announcing cancellation hours later, citing a breakthrough in negotiations. [1] He then signed a preliminary accord on June 17 establishing a 60-day negotiation window, while stating he would "continue bombing" if dissatisfied with progress. [1] The arrangement gave way when Trump launched a new air campaign during a NATO summit on July 7, conducting intense strikes over thirteen days. [1] On July 27, he announced a two-week pause to allow negotiations another chance, [1] but on August 1, after initially threatening to strike "very hard," he reversed course once more, canceling operations citing agreement parameters reached among Middle Eastern allies. [1]