澳大利亚房价已从峰值下跌5.2%，主要银行预测进一步下跌7-15%，摩根士丹利甚至预计这可能是过去40年来最大的价格修正1。四轮加息使中等收入家庭的借贷能力下降约9万澳元，超过32%的借款人面临抵押贷款压力风险，较1月份上升8.4%1。典型收入家庭仅能负担全澳12%的住房，房屋可负担性已达历史低位1。
相比之下，新西兰和加拿大的房市修正经验或可提供参考。新西兰房价从2022年峰值的NZ$106万下跌约18%，自2024年中期开始连续九次降息后趋于稳定，房价收入比也从2021年末的9.8下降到2026年第二季度的6.71。加拿大房价从2022年初高点下跌约20%，央行利率从2022年3月的0.25%上升至2023年7月的5%，近期租金连续24个月下跌，最新年同比下跌4.2%1。然而加拿大可负担性压力仍然存在1。
澳大利亚的情况具有独特性。疫情期间澳大利亚房价仅上升约25%，低于新西兰的44%和加拿大的50%1。当前澳大利亚失业率为4.6%，低于加拿大的6.4%和新西兰的5.6%1。但与上述两国已进入降息周期不同，澳大利亚目前仍面临利率高企和消费信心低迷的压力，经济学家预计未来可能出现10-15%的房价下跌1。
Australia's housing market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with prices already declining 5.2% from their peak 1. Major banks predict further drops of 7–15%, while Morgan Stanley forecasts the largest price correction in 40 years 1. This deterioration comes as four consecutive interest rate rises have reduced borrowing capacity for middle-income households by approximately 9% or AUD 90,000 1. More than 32% of borrowers now face mortgage stress risk, up 8.4% from January 1.
To understand what may lie ahead, Australia's experience can be compared with recent housing corrections in New Zealand and Canada. New Zealand's house prices fell approximately 18% from their 2022 peak of NZ$1.06 million before stabilizing after nine consecutive interest rate cuts beginning mid-2024 1. The price-to-income ratio improved markedly, declining from 9.8 at the end of 2021 to 6.7 by the second quarter of 2026 1. Canada's market contracted even more sharply, with prices dropping roughly 20% from their early 2022 high, though they had surged over 50% during the pandemic 1. The Canadian central bank raised rates from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5% by July 2023 1, and rental prices there have fallen for 24 consecutive months, with the latest annual decline at 4.2% 1.
Australia's position differs significantly from its counterparts. During the pandemic, Australian house prices rose only about 25% between April 2020 and February 2022, substantially less than New Zealand's 44% or Canada's 50% 1. The unemployment rate remains lower at 4.6% compared to Canada's 6.4% and New Zealand's 5.6% 1. However, Australia faces a more severe affordability crisis, with typical-income households able to afford only 12% of properties nationwide 1. Economists anticipate potential price falls of 10–15% as the market continues to adjust under sustained pressure from elevated interest rates and weakened consumer confidence 1.
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