澳大利亚储备银行宣布将现金利率从4.35%提高至4.6%123，这是自2011年以来的最高水平12，也是该行今年第四次加息123。此举旨在遏制持续高于目标的通胀压力。据预测，每月平均抵押贷款的还款成本将增加约120澳元2，而今年四次加息累计已使家庭月度还款增加约480澳元2。
当前基础通胀率仍居高位。7月年度通胀率为3.5%，核心通胀为3.6%2，预期8月基础通胀年率为3.6%，连续第三个月维持在这一水平1，均远超澳央行2%-3%的目标范围12。为应对通胀风险，央行行长米歇尔·布洛克指出了三大压力来源：中东冲突推高油价、人工智能繁荣拉升科技品价格，以及国内产能压力高于预期3。布洛克警告称，工人和企业可能会因预期高通胀持续而提高价格和工资要求1。
央行尚未排除进一步加息的可能。澳新银行预测利率将在11月升至4.85%3，11月下次董事会上的第五次加息也未被排除3。不过，布洛克表示目前衰退风险并非央行的中心预测情景2，央行希望在控制通胀的同时避免大规模失业3。经济面临的挑战亦不容忽视：6月季度经济仅增长0.4%2，8月失业率上升至4.6%2，房地产市场亦表现疲弱，全国房价8月下跌0.9%，连续第五个月下降2。
The Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted its official cash rate to 4.6%, marking the highest level since late 2011 and the fourth rate increase this year 123. The move will increase monthly mortgage repayments for millions of borrowers, with the four rate rises implemented so far this year adding approximately 480 Australian dollars to typical household monthly payments 2.
The decision reflects persistent inflationary pressure, with core inflation running at 3.6% in August, well above the RBA's 2 to 3 percent target range 12. RBA Governor Michele Bullock identified three key risks driving the bank's concern: Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, artificial intelligence demand boosting technology costs, and domestic capacity pressure exceeding expectations 3. She warned that workers and businesses may increase their price and wage demands in response to sustained high inflation 1.
Despite the aggressive tightening cycle, Bullock stated the bank does not view recession as its central scenario 2. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent in August 2, while national house prices fell 0.9 percent and have declined for five consecutive months 2. The bank has not ruled out a fifth rate increase at its November meeting, with the Australian and New Zealand Banking Group predicting rates could rise further to 4.85 percent by that time 3.
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