澳大利亚央行将基准利率上调至4.6%，创2011年来新高

澳大利亚央行预计将于周二宣布上调基准利率，从当前的4.35%升至4.6%1，这将是该国自2011年以来的最高水平1。这次调整标志着2026年内央行第四次加息1，旨在应对持续高于3%目标区间五年多的通胀压力1。

此举将进一步增加购房者的还款负担。典型新房贷利率预计将升至6.5%1，以平均抵押贷额731,000澳元、现行利率6.2%计算，贷款人月度还款将增加约119澳元1。自1月以来，月还款总增额已接近480澳元1。房贷查询数量也在下滑，从2026年初的近15,000周跌至8至9月的12,000多笔1。

受加息和其他因素影响，澳大利亚房产市场前景黯淡。房价已从今年早些时候的峰值下跌逾4%1。金融机构预测更大幅度的下跌——Westpac预测悉尼房价将下跌10%、墨尔本8%1，而银行业普遍预测房价到2027年中期将下跌7.3%1。此外，汽油价格上升80美分，进一步增加了车主的加油成本，平均每辆车增加44澳元支出1。

Australia's Reserve Bank is set to increase its benchmark interest rate from 4.35% to 4.6% on Tuesday, marking the highest level since 2011 1. This move represents the fourth rate hike in 2026 as the central bank continues its effort to combat inflation that has remained above its 3% target range for over five years 1.

The rate increase will have immediate consequences for mortgage holders, with typical new home loan rates expected to climb to 6.5% 1. For a borrower with an average mortgage of $731,000 at a current rate of 6.2%, the monthly repayment obligation will rise by approximately $119, bringing the total increase since January to nearly $480 1. Housing demand has already begun to cool, with mortgage inquiries declining from nearly 15,000 per week at the start of 2026 to approximately 12,000 in August and September 1.

The tightening monetary policy compounds existing pressures on the property market. House prices have already fallen more than 4% from their peak earlier this year, with major banks forecasting further declines of 10% in Sydney and 8% in Melbourne 1. Financial institutions predict an overall 7.3% drop in home values by mid-2027 1. Additional cost pressures facing households include a surge in fuel prices, with petrol increasing by 80 cents due to U.S. actions related to Iran, adding approximately $44 to vehicle refueling expenses 1.