智库预计2027年中国国内汽车市场进入修复期

中国汽车智库车百会理事长张永偉预计，2026年中国汽车市场将进入调整期，呈现出口强劲、内需疲软的局面1。具体而言，2026年国内销量预计年减18%，而出口量则年增55%1。张永偉强调，2027年国内汽车市场将进入修复期1。

张永偉表示，十五五时期（2026至2030年）汽车市场年销规模需达到3500万至4000万辆1。其中，维持国内市场2500万辆年销量是稳定内部循环的重要任务，而出口与海外生产的合理目标设定为1000万至1500万辆1。他指出，未来产业重组将成为重点推动方向1。据8月数据，广义乘用车国内销量年减23.7%、出口量年增77.5%1。

Zhang Yongwei, chairman of the China Automotive Think Tank (Chebai Association), projects that China's automotive market will enter an adjustment period in 2026, with domestic sales declining 18 percent year-over-year while exports surge 55 percent, creating a stark contrast between robust overseas demand and weak domestic consumption 1. He forecasts that the domestic market will transition into a recovery phase beginning in 2027 1.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), Zhang emphasized that maintaining an annual domestic market sales volume of 25 million vehicles is crucial for stabilizing internal consumption cycles 1. Concurrently, the industry should target combined export and overseas production output of 10 to 15 million vehicles during this timeframe 1. Achieving total automotive market sales of 35 to 40 million units annually throughout the plan period remains essential 1. Zhang indicated that industrial restructuring will become a key focus for future development 1.

Recent market data underscores the current downturn, with August broad-based passenger vehicle domestic sales falling 23.7 percent year-over-year while export volumes climbed 77.5 percent 1, reflecting the dramatic imbalance between domestic and international market performance.