澳大利亚5月预算改革调整了负扣税和资本利得税政策后，房地产市场出现明显转变[1]。四大银行公布的贷款数据反映了这一变化——澳洲联邦银行报告总贷款申请下跌15%，其中投资者贷款申请下跌28%[1]；西太平洋银行投资者贷款申请下跌近30%，首次购房者贷款申请下跌32%[1]；国民澳洲银行和澳新银行的抵押贷款申请分别下跌15%和12%[1]。房价也随之调整，全国住宅价值自3月峰值下跌2%[1]，澳洲国民银行经济学团队预测悉尼房价可能在年底前进一步下跌14.5%，墨尔本跌幅为12.8%[1]。
尽管首次购房者面临利率上升、生活成本压力和预算变化带来的犹豫[1]，银行高管和央行官员对市场前景相对乐观。澳洲储备银行行长Michele Bullock指出，负资产借款人占比低于1%，即使房价下跌20%，也仅约5%的家庭会陷入负资产[1]。澳洲联邦银行首席执行官Matt Comyn表示"过去12个月不是购买房屋的坏时机"[1]。储备银行数据显示，底层四分之一借款人（最可能是首次购房者）拥有超过10个月的还款缓冲[1]，这为潜在买家提供了较为稳定的借款基础。
Australia's residential property market is showing signs of deflation following May budget reforms that targeted negative gearing and capital gains tax policies. The major banks have reported a sharp pullback in investor lending, with applications dropping between 28% and 30% across the sector [1]. Overall, national dwelling values have declined 2% from their March peak [1], with economists forecasting steeper corrections in major cities—ANZ's economic team predicts Sydney house prices could fall 14.5% by year-end and Melbourne by 12.8% [1].
The lending slowdown is evident across Australia's "Big Four" banks. Commonwealth Bank reported a 15% decline in overall loan applications and a 28% drop in investor lending since the budget [1], while Westpac saw investor applications slip nearly 30% and first-time buyer applications fall 32% [1]. NAB and ANZ reported mortgage application declines of 15% and 12% respectively [1]. Despite this uncertainty affecting first-time buyers, senior banking executives and Reserve Bank officials suggest the market correction could eventually create opportunities. Commonwealth Bank Chief Executive Matt Comyn stated that "the past 12 months have not been a bad time to purchase a home" [1], though Westpac Chief Executive Anthony Miller acknowledged that first-time buyers remain hesitant due to rising interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, and the budget changes [1].
Financial risks for borrowers appear manageable under current conditions. Reserve Bank data shows that the lowest quarter of borrowers—predominantly first-time buyers—maintain payment buffers exceeding 10 months [1]. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock noted that households in negative equity currently represent less than 1% of the population, and even a 20% house price fall would push only about 5% of households into negative equity [1].