港媒報道指出，中國航天發射成功率近年呈現下滑趨勢[1]。失利間隔已從2024年的每34發一失惡化至今年的每14發一失[1]。2025年迄今共進行56次軌道發射，其中52次成功、4次失敗，成功率為92.86%[1]，較2024年的97.1%和2023年的95.9%明顯下降[1]。
今年發生的失利事件包括1月長征三號乙和谷神星二號發射失敗、4月天龍三號失利，以及長征七號改的發射失敗[1]。在中國航天進入高密度發射期的背景下，2026年上半年計劃完成44至48次發射，其中商業發射佔比超過六成[1]。
China's orbital launch success rate has deteriorated significantly over the past three years, according to Hong Kong media reports.[1] The failure interval has worsened from one failure per 34 launches in 2024 to one failure per 14 launches this year.[1] Through 2025, China has conducted 56 orbital launches with 52 successes and 4 failures, yielding a success rate of 92.86%.[1] This marks a decline compared to 2024's 97.1% success rate and 2023's 95.9% success rate.[1]
The failures in 2025 include missions involving the Long March 3B, Ceres-2, Tiansuan-3, and Long March 7A rockets.[1] China's space program is entering a period of high-density launches, with plans to conduct between 44 and 48 missions in the first half of 2026, with commercial launches accounting for more than 60% of that total.[1]