巴西央行发布的《焦点报告》显示，金融机构对2026年经济前景的预期出现调整1。2026年通胀预期从5.02%下调至5.01%，GDP增长预期从1.95%下调至1.92%1。同时，2027年通胀预期从4.25%升至4.28%1。
下调与最近物价表现密切相关1。巴西全国广义消费者价格指数8月环比下降0.40%，这是一年来首次出现环比下降，电价、食品和交通价格下降成为主要拉动因素1。尽管这反映出短期物价压力趋于缓和，但金融机构对经济增长动能的评估转趋谨慎1。
市场对其他经济指标的预期基本维持稳定1。2026年末基准利率预期维持在13.75%，而当前利率为14%；美元兑雷亚尔汇率预期维持在1美元兑5.20雷亚尔1。
Brazil's financial institutions have revised down their economic outlook for 2026, according to the Central Bank's Focus Report.1 The inflation forecast for 2026 was lowered from 5.02% to 5.01%, while the GDP growth projection declined from 1.95% to 1.92%.1 For 2027, inflation expectations rose to 4.28%.1
The downward adjustments reflect easing price pressures in the economy.1 Brazil's broad consumer price index fell 0.40% month-on-month in August, marking the first such decline in a year, driven primarily by decreases in electricity, food, and transportation costs.1 Financial markets maintained their expectations for the benchmark interest rate at 13.75% by the end of 2026, compared to the current rate of 14%, and held steady the dollar-to-real exchange rate forecast at 1 USD to 5.20 BRL.1
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