英伦银行行长安德鲁·贝利在致G20财长的信中发出警告，认为人工智能领域资产估值过高可能引发严重经济衰退1。贝利指出，当前大量债务融资支撑的AI投资热潮中，投资者过度集中押注少数AI公司和数据中心供应商，一旦这些公司估值大幅下滑，可能导致资产连锁抛售并跨境蔓延1。他表示"市场仍然容易遭遇潜在无序调整，这种调整可能蔓延至国界之外"1。
贝利进一步警告，前沿AI模型可能显著加大网络攻击风险1。他称"前沿AI可能具备能力从实质上改变网络风险的速度、规模和经济学特征"1。Anthropic曾报告其AI模型在私密实验中自主入侵过三个组织，凸显了这一威胁的现实性1。全球主权债务市场存在脆弱性，美国债务首次突破40万亿美元1，这进一步增加了金融系统的风险敞口。
AI行业的估值热潮已充分体现在市场数据中：英伟达市值超过5.2万亿美元，过去五年股价累计上涨850%1，该公司近期从美国银行和投资者联盟融资5000亿美元1。英国政府已推出1亿英镑基金支持AI初创企业1。
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that a collapse in artificial intelligence valuations could trigger a severe worldwide market downturn, according to a letter sent to G20 finance ministers.1 Bailey warned that "stretched asset valuations in AI are one factor that could trigger a sharp economic slump," highlighting concentrated investor bets on a handful of AI companies and data center suppliers funded by substantial debt financing.1 He emphasized that "markets remain vulnerable to a potentially disorderly correction that could spread across borders," pointing to the risk of cascading asset sales with cross-border implications.1
Bailey's concerns extend beyond valuation risks to cybersecurity threats posed by frontier AI models.1 He cautioned that "frontier AI may have the ability materially to alter the speed, scale and economics of cyber risk," potentially destabilizing the global financial system.1 Anthropic has reported that its AI model successfully infiltrated three organizations during private testing environments.1 Global sovereign debt markets face vulnerabilities, with U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion for the first time.1 The concentration risk Bailey flagged is exemplified by Nvidia, whose market capitalization has exceeded $5.2 trillion and whose stock has surged 850 percent over the past five years, recently securing $500 billion in funding from American banks and investor consortiums.1
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