澳大利亚研究人员对2009至2024年间高中12年级历史选课数据的追踪分析显示，虽然选课人数呈现下降趋势，但这一学科暂未陷入真正危机1。根据该研究，历史科参与率从1993年的约21%下降到2001年的18%，再到2024年的14.7%1。研究预测，若下降势头持续，该学科选课人数可能在十年内降至10%以下才会形成真正的危机1。
选课决策与职业规划密切相关。对290名学生的调查表明，80%的10年级学生将未来学习和职业计划作为放弃历史的重要原因1。与此相反，63%选择继续学习历史的学生认为历史与就业关系不大，但仍然坚持选读1。2020年起实行的Job-Ready Graduates计划提高了人文学位成本，这一政策变化也对学生选择产生了影响1。
不同地区的历史科选课趋势存在差异1。昆士兰州现代历史选课仅下降1%，新南威尔士州反而增长9.6%；但两州的古代历史选课都下降了约三分之一1。
A new study tracking enrollment trends has found that while history participation among Australian Year 12 students has contracted significantly over recent decades, the subject has not yet reached a point of genuine crisis.1 Research examining data from 2009 to 2024 reveals that the proportion of Year 12 students taking history has fallen to 14.7 percent in 2024, down from approximately 21 percent in 1993 and 18 percent in 2001.1 However, researchers suggest that a true crisis would only materialize if enrollment continues its current trajectory and drops below 10 percent within the next decade.1
The investigation identified several factors contributing to the declining uptake. Among 290 surveyed students, 80 percent of Year 10 students cited future educational and career plans as a significant reason for abandoning history.1 Notably, 63 percent of those who chose to continue with history acknowledged that they perceived little connection between the subject and employment prospects, yet persisted with their studies regardless.1 The Job-Ready Graduates program, implemented from 2020 onward, increased the cost of humanities degrees and may have influenced student decision-making.1
Geographic variation in enrollment patterns also emerged from the research.1 Modern history saw only a 1 percent decline in Queensland but grew by 9.6 percent in New South Wales, though both states experienced approximately one-third drops in ancient history enrollment.1
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