澳大利亚首次购房者正面临房市下滑带来的负资产风险。据财经专栏作者Nicole Pedersen-McKinnon分析，政府扩大的Home Guarantee Scheme允许首次购房者仅以5%首付进入市场，政府为额外15%提供担保以避免贷款保险费用[1]。在2024年10月1日该计划调整后，购买价格上限大幅提升且取消收入限制，所有首次购房者都符合资格[1]。预算案发布后不久，数万名首次购房者涌入市场，导致首次购房者贷款额达到房价的95%[1]。联盟党表示，过去六个月进入市场的6万多名首次购房者中，数万人面临负资产风险[1]。
为应对这一局面，Pedersen-McKinnon提出了三个防护步骤[1]。首先，购房者需确保拥有稳定收入，这一点尤为重要，因为贷款人需通过300基点压力测试（相当于12次加息）才能获得贷款，而今年已有三次加息[1]。其次，购买收入保护保险可在失业或收入中断时提供保障[1]。第三，建立应急基金也至关重要——建议存入相当于六个月工资的紧急储备金，将其放入抵押贷款旁的offset账户[1]。尽管风险存在，目前所有房主中负资产比例仍低于1%[1]。
First-time home buyers in Australia face mounting risks of negative equity as the property market softens, according to financial columnist Nicole Pedersen-McKinnon writing in the Sydney Morning Herald [1]. The government's expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which commenced early in October 2023, enables first-time buyers to enter the market with a deposit of just 5 percent, with the government providing a 15 percent guarantee to avoid loan insurance [1]. From October 1, 2024, the scheme removed income caps and widened eligible property price thresholds, making all first-time buyers eligible [1]. Following the budget announcement shortly after May 12, tens of thousands of first-time buyers rushed into the market [1], securing loans representing 95 percent of property values [1].
The Coalition has warned that among more than 60,000 first-time buyers who entered the market in the past six months, tens of thousands now face negative equity risk [1]. While negative equity currently affects less than 1 percent of all homeowners, the sector's vulnerability has grown [1]. Borrowers have already faced three interest rate increases and must pass a 300-basis-point stress test—equivalent to 12 additional rate rises—to obtain lending approval [1].
To mitigate these risks, Pedersen-McKinnon recommends three protective measures: securing stable income, purchasing income protection insurance, and establishing an emergency fund [1]. She specifically suggests building a reserve equal to six months' salary and placing it in an offset account linked to the mortgage [1].