2026年7月22日至23日，欧洲央行管理委员会在法兰克福召开货币政策会议，决定维持三大关键利率不变 1。会议评估认为，尽管6月通胀数据低于预期，但中东冲突引发的能源价格冲击仍构成上行风险，通胀前景存在高度不确定性，需等待9月更多数据再做决策 1。数据显示，欧元区6月HICP通胀率降至2.8%，低于5月的3.2% 1。分项来看，能源通胀从10.8%降至8.5%，食品通胀从1.9%降至1.5%，剔除能源和食品的核心通胀从2.6%降至2.4% 1。在能源价格方面，油价较6月会议时下降6%至每桶89美元，而欧洲天然气价格自6月会议以来上涨16% 1。
宏观经济与信贷方面，欧元区5月失业率为6.2%，接近历史低位 1。同时，企业银行贷款利率维持在3.6%，抵押贷款利率升至3.5% 1。针对未来的政策走向，市场预计2026年9月加息几乎完全被定价 1。此外，下次货币政策会议纪要将于2026年10月8日发布 1。
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank convened for its monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt on July 22-23, 2026, and decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged 1. Although June inflation data came in below expectations, the council assessed that energy price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict still present upside risks, leading to high uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook 1. Consequently, policymakers determined that more data is needed in September before making further decisions 1.
Detailed inflation figures showed that the euro area's HICP inflation rate dropped to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May 1. Energy inflation declined from 10.8% to 8.5%, while food inflation fell from 1.9% to 1.5% 1. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% 1. In energy markets, oil prices were down 6% compared to the June meeting, reaching $89 per barrel, whereas European natural gas prices rose by 16% since the previous meeting 1.
On the labor front, the euro area unemployment rate was recorded at 6.2% in May, staying near historic lows 1. In the financial sector, corporate bank lending rates remained steady at 3.6%, while mortgage rates increased to 3.5% 1. Looking forward, market expectations have almost fully priced in an interest rate hike for September 2026 1. The accounts of the next monetary policy meeting are scheduled to be published on October 8, 2026 1.
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