澳大利亚统计局发布的最新数据显示，截至7月的一年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.5%，较6月的3.8%有所回落23，为去年11月以来的八个月最低水平1。不过，该数据环比上涨1%1，且高于经济学家和市场共识预期的3.3%13。同时，剔除波动项的核心通胀指标（截尾均值）维持在3.6%不变123，同样高于市场预期的3.5%1。
从具体分项来看，住房对通胀贡献最大，同比上涨5%1。其中，新建住宅价格同比上涨5.7%123，租金上涨3.6%3。此外，燃料价格当月上涨7.5%13，电价年涨幅则从6月的22.4%降至7月的6.1%2。在服务与日常消费方面，食品和非酒精饮料价格当月上涨3.2%1，外出就餐和外卖价格同比上涨4.5%23，娱乐和文化消费当月上涨2.6%1，托儿费用和教育费用分别上涨7.3%和4.8%2。值得注意的是，非自由支配购买价格上涨3.7%，仍高于3.2%的工资年度涨幅，加剧了家庭生活成本压力2。
面对高于预期的通胀数据，市场对澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）年内第四次加息的担忧加剧，多位经济学家预计9月或11月可能加息3。目前现金利率目标维持在4.35%23，下一次利率决议会议将于9月29日举行2。RBA 8月会议纪要显示，董事会对通胀上行风险表示担忧1。储备银行副行长Andrew Hauser警告称，如果通胀不下降，将不得不再次加息2。尽管如此，储备银行预测整体通胀将从6月季度的3.9%降至12月季度的3.6%，截尾均值预计从3.6%降至3.3%，并预计通胀将在2027年底回到2-3%的目标区间中点2。
Australia's annual inflation rate declined to 3.5% in July, marking the lowest level since November last year, yet it still surpassed the market consensus forecast of 3.3% 123. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 1% month-on-month increase during the period 1. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean, which measures underlying inflation, remained stagnant at 3.6%, also exceeding the anticipated 3.5% 123. This higher-than-expected data has intensified market concerns regarding a potential fourth interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with economists predicting a move at the upcoming September 29 meeting or in November 23.
Housing emerged as the most significant contributor to the inflationary pressure, rising by 5% annually 1. New dwelling prices and home building costs climbed by 5.7% over the year to July 123, alongside a 3.6% increase in rents 3. However, electricity price growth moderated substantially, falling from an annual surge of 22.4% in June to 6.1% in July 2.
Other major price drivers included a 7.5% monthly spike in fuel prices 13 and a 3.2% monthly rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages 1. Takeaway and restaurant meal prices advanced by 4.5% through the year 23, while increases were also recorded for childcare fees at 7.3% and education at 4.8% 2, alongside a 2.6% monthly rise in recreation and culture 1. Furthermore, non-discretionary spending prices grew by 3.7%, outpacing the 3.2% annual wage growth and exacerbating household living cost pressures 2.
With the cash rate target currently held at 4.35% 23, the RBA continues to face inflationary pressures 1. The central bank's August meeting minutes highlighted the board's ongoing concerns about upside risks to inflation 1. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that the bank would be forced to raise rates again if inflation does not continue to fall 2. Looking ahead, the RBA projects that inflation will ease from 3.9% in the June quarter to 3.6% in the December quarter, with the trimmed mean expected to drop from 3.6% to 3.3% 2. The central bank anticipates that inflation will eventually return to the midpoint of its 2-3% target range by late 2027 2.
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