乌克兰总统泽连斯基援引情报部门信息表示，俄罗斯计划在秋季启动新一轮动员以补充前线兵力。[1]美国战争研究所的报告也证实克里姆林宫正在为新一轮动员做准备。[1]
俄罗斯当前的征募状况面临严峻挑战。[1]莫斯科市向前线派遣的兵员数量呈下滑趋势，2026年4月派遣1708人，5月派遣1378人，与去年同期相比均减少约1000人。[1]2025年最后一季度，固定期限合同士兵的招募率较上年同期下降超过一半。[1]梅德韦杰夫曾声称2026年上半年约有20万人参军，而军事专家马特维耶夫认为实际数字约在17万至18万人之间。[1]
军事分析人士指出，俄罗斯当前的招募速度不足以支撑其军事目标的实现，新一轮动员能否改变战局前景不容乐观。[1]值得注意的是，普京在2022年秋季下令启动的部分动员至今仍然有效。[1]此外，亚美尼亚租房需求出现激增现象，俄罗斯人承租的房屋租金上涨约30%，多数租户为规避9月18日至20日的国家杜马选举。[1]
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has claimed, citing intelligence information, that Russia intends to launch a new mobilization campaign in autumn to replenish frontline forces.[1] While Moscow has not directly confirmed such plans, multiple indicators suggest the Kremlin is preparing for an expanded recruitment effort.[1]
Recruitment challenges have mounted for Russia in recent months. Moscow sent 1,708 personnel to the front in April 2026 and 1,378 in May, representing a decline of approximately 1,000 compared to the same period the previous year.[1] Fixed-term contract soldier recruitment in the final quarter of 2025 dropped by more than half compared to the same period the year before.[1] The U.S. Institute for the Study of War has reported that the Kremlin is preparing for a new mobilization round.[1] According to Russian official Medvedev, approximately 200,000 people participated in military service in the first half of 2026, though military expert Matveyev estimates the actual figure at around 170,000 to 180,000.[1] A partial mobilization order issued by Putin in autumn 2022 remains in effect.[1]
Military analysts suggest Russia's current recruitment pace is insufficient to achieve military victory, and a fresh mobilization may struggle to alter the trajectory of the conflict.[1]