美国8月消费者信心降至七个月低点，高油价与就业预期恶化成主因

世界大型企业研究会发布的数据显示，美国8月消费者信心指数从7月的90.2降至89.4，创下七个月以来的最低水平 1。该项调查的数据收集于8月3日至8月16日之间，信心指数的下滑主要受到汽油价格持续高于每加仑4美元以及伊朗冲突等因素的影响 1。

在分项指标方面，消费者对当前状况的看法有所改善，27%的受访者称工作“充足”，高于7月的24.4% 1。然而，短期前景却出现恶化，对就业市场的预期也明显转差，仅有14.6%的受访者预期未来六个月就业会增加，低于上月的16.4% 1。

宏观经济数据方面，6月PCE价格指数同比上涨3.7%，虽低于5月的4.1%，但仍高于伊朗战争开始前的2.8% 1。在2025年1月特朗普就职时，该指数为2.5% 1。就业市场同样面临压力，美国7月雇主削减了23,000个就业岗位，且劳工部修订数据从5月和6月的薪资报告中抹去了103,000个就业岗位 1。此外，尽管失业率降至4.1%，但这主要是由于劳动力退出市场所致 1。

U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a seven-month low in August, driven by gasoline prices remaining above $4 per gallon and the ongoing Iran conflict 1. The Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July, based on data collected between August 3 and August 16 1.

Consumers' views on current conditions showed some improvement, with 27% of respondents describing jobs as "plentiful," up from 24.4% in July 1. However, short-term expectations deteriorated, as only 14.6% of respondents anticipated an increase in jobs over the next six months, down from 16.4% the previous month 1. Meanwhile, U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July 1. The Labor Department revised its data to erase 103,000 jobs from the May and June payroll reports, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% due to workers leaving the labor force 1.

The June PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year 1. This figure was lower than the 4.1% recorded in May but higher than the 2.8% seen before the start of the Iran war and the 2.5% recorded when Donald Trump took office in January 2025 1.