欧洲中央银行发布7月消费者预期调查结果

欧洲中央银行日前公布了2026年7月消费者预期调查结果1。调查在7月2日至27日期间进行，覆盖欧元区11个国家、约19,000名消费者1。

消费者对当前物价形势的认知有所缓和1。过去12个月通胀感知的中位数从6月的3.6%下降至3.5%，对未来12个月通胀的预期从3.0%降至2.9%；未来三年通胀预期中位数为2.7%，较上月的2.8%有所回落，而未来五年通胀预期中位数保持在2.4%1。

收入和增长预期方面出现分化1。名义收入增长预期从1.1%下降至1.0%，名义支出增长预期保持不变，仍为3.6%1。经济增长预期出现改善，从6月的-1.4%上升至-1.2%；失业率预期12个月后维持在11.2%1。房价增长预期保持在3.4%，抵押贷款利率预期从5.0%回落至4.9%1。

The European Central Bank released its July 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey, revealing modest shifts in how eurozone consumers view inflation and economic conditions.1 The survey, conducted from July 2 to 27, 2026, encompassed approximately 19,000 consumers across 11 eurozone countries.1

Consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months declined slightly, with the median expectation falling to 3.5% from 3.6% in June.1 Looking forward, consumers expect inflation to moderate further, with the 12-month ahead inflation expectation declining to 2.9% from 3.0% in the previous month.1 Over longer horizons, three-year inflation expectations decreased to 2.7% from 2.8%, while five-year expectations remained stable at 2.4%.1 On interest rates, consumers revised their mortgage rate expectations downward to 4.9% from 5.0%.1

Economic sentiment showed marginal improvement, as consumers' economic growth expectations rose to negative 1.2% from negative 1.4% in June.1 By contrast, expectations for nominal wage growth contracted to 1.0% from 1.1%, while nominal spending growth held steady at 3.6%.1 Unemployment expectations for the 12-month horizon remained unchanged at 11.2%, and housing price growth expectations continued at 3.4%.1