中国驾训班行业正陷入严重困境。超过2.1万家驾训机构中，逾8成处于无盈利状态，产能利用率平均仅为28.6%1。预计未来5年内，驾训班数量将减少25%至35%，其中2026年至2027年为淘汰高峰期，2030年后供需方才趋于平衡1。
行业衰退的根本原因在于适龄学车人口的结构性萎缩。"00后"（2000至2009年出生）的出生人口仅为1.63亿，相比"60后"到"90后"每个阶段超过2亿人的规模大幅下降1。与此同时，年轻人的出行消费观念发生转变，倾向于使用网约车和公共交通，普遍延后甚至放弃学开车1。现实困境在各地出现，山东济南某驾训班15辆训练车中仅有4辆在从事教学工作1。
China's driving instruction industry is undergoing a severe contraction, with the sector expected to lose more than one-quarter of its businesses within the next five years.1 Among the nation's more than 21,000 driving schools, over 80 percent are currently unprofitable, and the average capacity utilization rate stands at just 28.6 percent.1 Industry analysts project that between 25 and 35 percent of driving schools will disappear, with the most intensive wave of closures anticipated between 2026 and 2027.1
The collapse stems from multiple structural factors reshaping China's demographic and transportation landscape. The post-2000 generation, numbering 163 million births, represents a dramatic decline compared to the 1960s through 1990s cohorts, each of which saw over 200 million births.1 Coupled with changing consumer preferences among younger people, who increasingly rely on ride-hailing services and public transportation rather than private vehicles, fewer individuals are pursuing driving licenses.1 Young people are adopting a "consumption-as-needed" approach, with many delaying or forgoing driving instruction altogether.1 A case study from a driving school in Jinan, Shandong province, illustrates the severity: with 15 training vehicles on hand, only 4 were actively in use for instruction.1
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