中国国家统计局公布的数据显示，7月份官方制造业采购经理指数（PMI）跌至49.2，环比下降1.1个百分点1。这是该指数五个月来首次跌破50的收缩线，远低于经济学家的预期1。PMI指数超过50表示经济扩张，低于50则表示收缩1。
新订单指数的疲软进一步反映了国内需求的乏力1。7月新订单子指数为48.5，创下自2023年以来的最低水平1。同时，生产子指数也出现回落，从6月的51.4下降至49.9，环比下跌1.5个百分点1。ING银行大中华区首席经济学家Lynn Song将这一数据描述为"不祥的开端"1。
中国经济增长前景面临压力。第二季度经济增速为4.3%，已是三年多来的最低水平1，而官方设定的全年增长目标为4.5%至5%1。虽然出口保持相对强劲，但国内消费投资不足的压力难以被出口完全抵消1。天气因素和国内商品需求疲软被认为是7月制造业收缩的主要原因1。
China's manufacturing sector contracted in July, marking a troubling development for the world's second-largest economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July, down 1.1 points from June's 50.3 and slipping below the 50-point threshold that signals expansion for the first time in five months 1. This unexpected deterioration came as economists had anticipated continued growth in industrial activity.
The weakness was broad-based across key indicators. The new orders subindex plummeted to 48.5, marking its lowest level since 2023 and down from June's 51.2, reflecting flagging domestic demand for goods 1. Production activity also slowed, with the production subindex declining to 49.9 from June's 51.4 1. Weak domestic consumption and investment are placing mounting pressure on China's economic outlook, even as strong export performance provides some offset 1. The contraction arrives at a precarious moment for growth prospects, given that second-quarter economic expansion slowed to 4.3 percent, the weakest pace in more than three years 1.
The deterioration prompted concerns from economists about the road ahead. Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China at ING Bank, characterized the development as an "ominous beginning" 1. With China targeting annual growth between 4.5 and 5 percent, the combination of weakening factory activity and subdued domestic demand underscores mounting headwinds facing the economy's expansion trajectory 1.
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。