中国国家统计局公布的数据显示，7月份官方制造业采购经理指数（PMI）跌至49.2，环比下降1.1个百分点[1]。这是该指数五个月来首次跌破50的收缩线，远低于经济学家的预期[1]。PMI指数超过50表示经济扩张，低于50则表示收缩[1]。
新订单指数的疲软进一步反映了国内需求的乏力[1]。7月新订单子指数为48.5，创下自2023年以来的最低水平[1]。同时，生产子指数也出现回落，从6月的51.4下降至49.9，环比下跌1.5个百分点[1]。ING银行大中华区首席经济学家Lynn Song将这一数据描述为"不祥的开端"[1]。
中国经济增长前景面临压力。第二季度经济增速为4.3%，已是三年多来的最低水平[1]，而官方设定的全年增长目标为4.5%至5%[1]。虽然出口保持相对强劲，但国内消费投资不足的压力难以被出口完全抵消[1]。天气因素和国内商品需求疲软被认为是7月制造业收缩的主要原因[1]。
China's manufacturing sector contracted in July, marking a troubling development for the world's second-largest economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July, down 1.1 points from June's 50.3 and slipping below the 50-point threshold that signals expansion for the first time in five months [1]. This unexpected deterioration came as economists had anticipated continued growth in industrial activity.
The weakness was broad-based across key indicators. The new orders subindex plummeted to 48.5, marking its lowest level since 2023 and down from June's 51.2, reflecting flagging domestic demand for goods [1]. Production activity also slowed, with the production subindex declining to 49.9 from June's 51.4 [1]. Weak domestic consumption and investment are placing mounting pressure on China's economic outlook, even as strong export performance provides some offset [1]. The contraction arrives at a precarious moment for growth prospects, given that second-quarter economic expansion slowed to 4.3 percent, the weakest pace in more than three years [1].
The deterioration prompted concerns from economists about the road ahead. Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China at ING Bank, characterized the development as an "ominous beginning" [1]. With China targeting annual growth between 4.5 and 5 percent, the combination of weakening factory activity and subdued domestic demand underscores mounting headwinds facing the economy's expansion trajectory [1].