芯片产能，快被抢光了？

AI芯片供应链正经历深层变革。1英伟达、美光、SK海力士、三星等行业巨头通过预付款、长期协议和保证金等方式，提前锁定未来三到五年的晶圆代工、高带宽内存（HBM）、先进封装等关键产能。1这种"预付款时代"改变了行业生态，提高了中小芯片公司的竞争门槛，同时推动了半导体融资模式的变革。1

英伟达在产能锁定上动作最大。1该公司披露的制造、供应和产能采购承诺达到1190亿美元，其中950亿美元将在当前财年剩余时间支付。1英伟达与先进封装商Amkor签署了总价值15亿美元的多年期先进封装与技术开发协议。1美光已与客户签署16份照付不议战略客户协议，剩余履约义务约为1000亿美元，协议预计带来220亿美元现金保证金及相关财务承诺，其中约180亿美元是现金保证金。1

其他芯片制造商和合作伙伴也在积极扩展产能承诺。1SK海力士已与约10家客户完成长期供货协议，通常为5年期限。1三星与博通签署合作备忘录，计划在未来五年至2030年扩大合作规模至超过2000亿美元。1台积电将2026年资本开支上调至600亿至640亿美元，其中10%至20%用于先进封装、测试、掩膜等环节。1AI芯片产能也从单点扩展到了一整套AI芯片制造体系。1

The artificial intelligence chip supply chain is undergoing a fundamental transformation as leading semiconductor firms shift from traditional transactional relationships to strategic asset acquisition through long-term commitments.1 Companies including NVIDIA, Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are securing production capacity years in advance through advance payments, multi-year contracts, and financial guarantees that reshape competitive dynamics across the industry.1

NVIDIA has committed to manufacturing, supply, and capacity purchases totaling $119 billion, with $95 billion scheduled to be paid during the remainder of its current fiscal year.1 The company has also entered into a multi-year advanced packaging and technology development agreement with Amkor valued at $1.5 billion.1 Micron has signed sixteen strategic customer agreements with remaining obligations of approximately $100 billion, supported by $220 billion in cash guarantees and related financial commitments, of which roughly $180 billion represents direct cash deposits.1 SK Hynix has completed long-term supply agreements with approximately ten customers, typically spanning five years.1 Samsung and Broadcom have signed a memorandum of understanding targeting expansion of their partnership to exceed $200 billion over the next five years through 2030.1

This capacity-locking strategy extends beyond individual chip producers to encompass the entire manufacturing ecosystem.1 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $60 billion and $64 billion, allocating 10 to 20 percent toward advanced packaging, testing, and photomask production.1 The shift toward advance commitments and prepayment models raises barriers to entry for smaller chip companies while simultaneously driving evolution in semiconductor financing practices across the industry.1