美联储决定连续第五次维持基准利率在3.5%-3.75%不变[1][2]，但这一决议并未安抚市场，反而引发了对通胀前景的担忧。30年期美国国债收益率随之升至5.24%，创19年新高[1]，美国政府借贷成本达到2007年以来最高水平[2]。美联储主席凯文·沃什强调对2%的通胀目标的承诺，表示"只有一个目标，那就是2%"[1]。然而，美联储内部出现分歧——12名联邦公开市场委员会成员中有3人投票支持加息25个基点[3]，同时三位地区联储主席也反对维持利率不变，主张加息以对抗高企的通胀[4][5]。
美国经济面临增长放缓与通胀持续的双重压力。第二季度国内生产总值增速仅为1.5%，低于第一季度的2.1%[4][5]。虽然6月年度通胀率从5月的4.2%回落至3.5%[3]，但美联储首选的PCE物价指数同比增长仍高达3.7%，远超2%的目标[4][5]。沃什指出，"长期高于目标的通胀水平已给美国民众和实体企业造成了不公平的负担"[3]。美联储主席暗示近期可能不需要加息，因债券收益率上升已推高整体借贷成本[1]。
这一决议引发了股市大幅调整。标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下跌1.5%、2.2%和1.7%[1][2]。市场对9月加息概率的预期也出现波动，从之前的100%下降至约57%[1]。对于后续政策走向，经济学家观点不一——华泰证券首席宏观经济学家认为美联储9月加息的概率很大[3]，而中银证券全球首席经济学家则认为美联储今年内大概率将维持利率不变[3]。
The Federal Reserve voted to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, marking the fifth consecutive decision to hold rates unchanged [1][2]. The decision immediately sent tremors through financial markets, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing 14 basis points to 5.24%, hitting its highest level in 19 years [1]. This surge in borrowing costs reflects investor concerns that the central bank may be moving too cautiously in its battle against persistent inflation [2].
The equity market reacted sharply to the announcement, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5%, the Dow Jones Index falling 2.2%, and the Nasdaq declining 1.7% [1][2]. Market expectations for a rate increase in September shifted significantly, declining from 100% probability to approximately 57% [1]. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that additional rate increases may not be necessary in the near term, noting that rising bond yields have already elevated overall borrowing costs across the economy [1]. Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target, stating: "There is no soft implicit target: not on this committee's watch. There's only a target and it's 2%" [1].
Economic data showed second-quarter GDP expanded at only 1.5%, falling short of expectations and declining from the first quarter's 2.1% growth rate [4][5]. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 3.7% year-over-year, down from 4.1% in May but still exceeding the central bank's 2% target [4][5]. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3% annually, remaining essentially flat compared to May's 3.4% [4][5]. Not all Fed policymakers agreed with the decision to hold rates steady; three regional Federal Reserve presidents voted to raise rates by 25 basis points to combat elevated inflation [3].