英格兰银行货币政策委员会以6比3的投票结果决定将基准利率维持在3.75%[1]，这是该行今年第五次保持利率不变[1]。尽管英国6月消费者物价指数下降至2.6%[1][2]，但通胀率仍连续21个月高于央行2%的目标[1]。
央行认为中东冲突是阻碍通胀进一步下行的主要因素[2]。布伦特原油价格在7月中旬曾一度飙升至100美元/桶以上，较三周前的71美元大幅上涨[1]，当前交易价格约为92美元/桶[1]。央行警告，若中东局势持续恶化且油价超过100美元/桶，英国通胀可能升至4.1%[2]，不过目前尚未出现二轮效应的证据[2]。央行预期通胀峰值将在明年春天达到3.2%[2]。
政策委员会内部存在分歧，三名委员投票支持提高借贷成本[2]。与此同时，英国国家经济社会研究所表示中东冲突已导致英国今年经济增长损失280亿英镑[2]。第二季度英国私营部门年均工资增幅为2.8%[2]，预计第三季度将升至3%[2]。
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold in 2025 [1]. The decision came by a vote of 6-3 [1], with three committee members supporting a rate increase.
Despite UK inflation declining to 2.6% in June [1][2], it has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 21 consecutive months [1]. The Bank acknowledged that the Middle East conflict represents the primary obstacle to further disinflation, with the central bank noting that domestic inflationary pressures would have nearly disappeared absent geopolitical tensions [2]. Officials warned that if Middle Eastern turmoil persists and Brent crude oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, inflation could rise to 4.1%, though they project a near-term peak of 3.2% in spring next year [2]. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research reported that the Middle East crisis has already cost the UK economy £28 billion in lost growth this year [2].
Oil prices have emerged as a critical concern for policymakers globally. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel on July 23, climbing from $71 three weeks earlier [1], though it was trading near $92 per barrel at the time of the decision [1]. Private sector wage growth in Britain's second quarter reached 2.8% annually, with projections indicating a rise to 3% in the third quarter [2].