一项研究表明，各国福利体系的支出侧重与其跨境资本管制政策之间存在显著联系。[1]倾向于养老金支出的国家往往维持更严格的资本管制措施，而在劳动力保护和教育投资上支出较多的国家则倾向于保持更开放的金融边界。[1]研究人员指出，福利政策在维持金融开放的政治可行性中发挥了宏观审慎的作用。[1]
这项研究覆盖了1995年至2019年间的经合组织国家以及包括新兴经济体在内的35个国家。[1]根据国际货币基金组织数据，尽管已经历数十年的自由化浪潮，大多数经济体仍以某种方式限制跨境金融流动。[1]1944年《布雷顿森林协议》明确规定各成员国有权控制所有资本流动，为此类政策提供了国际法基础。[1]
具体案例显示出这一模式的多样表现。北欧和大陆欧洲的综合福利国家配有最开放的资本账户。[1]相比之下，波兰将约三分之二的社会支出用于劳动力外人口，在维谢格拉德集团中维持着最严格的资本流动管制。[1]而乌拉圭虽然建立了拉美最广泛的福利系统，但自1990年代以来一直保持资本账户开放。[1]
这项研究获得了2025年欧洲政治研究学会政治经济与福利国家政治常设小组的最佳论文奖。[1]
A new study reveals a significant relationship between how countries structure their welfare spending and their approach to cross-border financial regulation.[1] Researchers found that nations prioritizing pension expenditures maintain stricter capital controls, while those investing more heavily in labor market protections and education tend to keep their financial borders more open.[1] The research suggests that welfare policies play a macroprudential role in sustaining the political viability of financial openness.[1]
The study, which examined data from OECD countries and 35 additional nations spanning 1995 to 2019, demonstrates that most economies continue to restrict cross-border financial flows in some form despite decades of liberalization.[1] The 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement explicitly granted member states the right to control all capital flows, establishing the legal foundation for such restrictions.[1] Nordic and continental European comprehensive welfare states are found to maintain the most open capital accounts, while Poland—which directs approximately two-thirds of its social spending toward non-working populations—upholds the strictest capital flow controls within the Visegrad Group.[1] Uruguay, which developed Latin America's broadest welfare system, has kept its capital account open since the 1990s.[1]
The research by Martino Comelli and Pedro Perfeito Da Silva received the 2025 best paper award from the Political Economy and Welfare State Politics Standing Group of the European Political Science Association.[1]