澳大利亚6月年度通胀率下降至3.8%，低于经济学家预期的4.1%[1]至4.8%[2]，环比5月的4.0%进一步回落[1][3]。这一意外向好的数据立即改变了市场对澳洲央行政策走向的预期。
核心通胀指标（修剪平均值）维持在3.6%，与5月相同[1][4][5]，但仍高于澳洲央行2-3%的目标区间[4]。在6月整体物价下跌0.1%的支撑下[2]，汽油价格下跌10.9%对通胀数据的缓解起到关键作用[2][3][7]。与此同时，非贸易品通胀率上升至4.9%，高于去年同期的2.9%[1]；新房建设通胀达5.8%，创近三年新高[1][2][7]；电力成本同比上升22.4%[1][2]。
市场对澳洲央行8月加息前景的预期发生了戏剧性转变。数据公布前，市场押注8月10-11日会议加息的概率为19%至22%[1][2]，但随后立即暴跌至3%[1]。相比之下，12月加息概率从75%上升至81%[1]，2027年2月前加息概率则从92%升至96%[1]。经济学家意见不一，但部分人士已表示不再预期澳洲央行今年会加息[5]。澳洲央行行长Michele Bullock指出"通胀保持在目标外的时间越长，委员会就越担忧"[7]。
市场对通胀数据的反应立竿见影。澳元应声下跌至69.5美分（0.695美元）[1][2]，而ASX 200指数上涨1.1%至1.3%[1]。
Australia's annual inflation rate declined to 3.8% in June, falling below economist expectations and down from 4.0% in May.[1][5][7] The trimmed mean measure of core inflation held steady at 3.6%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2–3% target band.[1][4][5][7]
The softer inflation data substantially reduced market expectations for an interest rate increase at the RBA's August 10–11 meeting.[1][2] Betting odds for an August rate hike collapsed from 19% before the announcement to just 3%, while the probability of a rate increase by December rose to 81%.[1] Market pricing now suggests a 96% chance of a rate hike before February 2027.[1] The Australian dollar fell approximately 0.3% to 69.5 US cents following the data release, while the ASX 200 index climbed 1.1–1.3%.[1][2]
Underlying price pressures remain persistent in several sectors. Non-traded goods inflation reached 4.9% year-on-year in June, up from 4.7% in May and well above the prior-year level of 2.9%.[1] New house construction inflation hit 5.8%, marking a three-year high, with housing overall contributing 6.8% to the June inflation figure.[1][7] Electricity costs surged 22.4% year-on-year, though petrol prices fell 10.9% in June.[1][7] Services inflation climbed from 3.6% in March to 4.0% in June.[5]
The RBA's cash rate currently stands at 4.35%, having been increased in February, March, and May.[4][7] RBA Governor Michele Bullock previously indicated the bank was "prepared to take any action necessary" to control inflation and expressed concern about how long inflation remains outside the 2–3% target band.[4][7] Bullock noted that the May forecasts projected inflation would fall below 3% only by the end of 2027.[7] Some economists no longer expect the central bank to raise rates this year.[5]
