澳大利亚6月通胀意外回落至3.8% 八月加息可能性大幅下降

澳大利亚6月年度通胀率下降至3.8%，低于经济学家预期的4.1%1至4.8%2，环比5月的4.0%进一步回落13。这一意外向好的数据立即改变了市场对澳洲央行政策走向的预期。

核心通胀指标（修剪平均值）维持在3.6%，与5月相同145，但仍高于澳洲央行2-3%的目标区间4。在6月整体物价下跌0.1%的支撑下2，汽油价格下跌10.9%对通胀数据的缓解起到关键作用237。与此同时，非贸易品通胀率上升至4.9%，高于去年同期的2.9%1；新房建设通胀达5.8%，创近三年新高127；电力成本同比上升22.4%12。

市场对澳洲央行8月加息前景的预期发生了戏剧性转变。数据公布前，市场押注8月10-11日会议加息的概率为19%至22%12，但随后立即暴跌至3%1。相比之下，12月加息概率从75%上升至81%1，2027年2月前加息概率则从92%升至96%1。经济学家意见不一，但部分人士已表示不再预期澳洲央行今年会加息5。澳洲央行行长Michele Bullock指出"通胀保持在目标外的时间越长，委员会就越担忧"7。

市场对通胀数据的反应立竿见影。澳元应声下跌至69.5美分（0.695美元）12，而ASX 200指数上涨1.1%至1.3%1。

Australia's annual inflation rate declined to 3.8% in June, falling below economist expectations and down from 4.0% in May.157 The trimmed mean measure of core inflation held steady at 3.6%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2–3% target band.1457

The softer inflation data substantially reduced market expectations for an interest rate increase at the RBA's August 10–11 meeting.12 Betting odds for an August rate hike collapsed from 19% before the announcement to just 3%, while the probability of a rate increase by December rose to 81%.1 Market pricing now suggests a 96% chance of a rate hike before February 2027.1 The Australian dollar fell approximately 0.3% to 69.5 US cents following the data release, while the ASX 200 index climbed 1.1–1.3%.12

Underlying price pressures remain persistent in several sectors. Non-traded goods inflation reached 4.9% year-on-year in June, up from 4.7% in May and well above the prior-year level of 2.9%.1 New house construction inflation hit 5.8%, marking a three-year high, with housing overall contributing 6.8% to the June inflation figure.17 Electricity costs surged 22.4% year-on-year, though petrol prices fell 10.9% in June.17 Services inflation climbed from 3.6% in March to 4.0% in June.5

The RBA's cash rate currently stands at 4.35%, having been increased in February, March, and May.47 RBA Governor Michele Bullock previously indicated the bank was "prepared to take any action necessary" to control inflation and expressed concern about how long inflation remains outside the 2–3% target band.47 Bullock noted that the May forecasts projected inflation would fall below 3% only by the end of 2027.7 Some economists no longer expect the central bank to raise rates this year.5