美联储将于本周二三召开会议，预计维持基准利率不变1。尽管新主席凯文·沃什表示对高通胀"没有容忍度"1，但华尔街交易员预测本周升息的概率仅为29%1。不过，市场对9月15-16日可能采取行动寄予厚望，升息预期达到76%1，较一个月前的59%大幅上升1。
通胀形势仍然严峻。美联储的2%通胀目标已被连续突破五年1，自2021年初以来始终高于预期，并在2022年中旬达到超过9%的峰值1。地缘政治冲击加剧了决策的复杂性——美国与以色列2月28日对伊朗的攻击后，伊朗关闭了霍尔木兹海峡1，而全球五分之一的石油和天然气通过该海峡运输1。受此影响，油价上周一度超过100美元/桶1，进一步推高了通胀压力。
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged during its meeting this week, though policymakers may consider action at a subsequent gathering in mid-September 1. New Fed Chair Kevin Walsh has expressed zero tolerance for high inflation 1, yet market expectations suggest a pause in rate adjustments for now.
Inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for five consecutive years, with the rate peaking above 9% in mid-2022 before moderating 1. Wall Street traders currently assess a 29% probability of a rate increase this week, compared with a 76% likelihood of action in September 1—a significant shift from a month ago, when only 59% of traders anticipated a September hike 1. Following a U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows 1. Oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel last week due to these developments 1, adding uncertainty to the inflation trajectory that will factor into the central bank's decision-making process.
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