美联储将于本周二三召开会议，预计维持基准利率不变[1]。尽管新主席凯文·沃什表示对高通胀"没有容忍度"[1]，但华尔街交易员预测本周升息的概率仅为29%[1]。不过，市场对9月15-16日可能采取行动寄予厚望，升息预期达到76%[1]，较一个月前的59%大幅上升[1]。
通胀形势仍然严峻。美联储的2%通胀目标已被连续突破五年[1]，自2021年初以来始终高于预期，并在2022年中旬达到超过9%的峰值[1]。地缘政治冲击加剧了决策的复杂性——美国与以色列2月28日对伊朗的攻击后，伊朗关闭了霍尔木兹海峡[1]，而全球五分之一的石油和天然气通过该海峡运输[1]。受此影响，油价上周一度超过100美元/桶[1]，进一步推高了通胀压力。
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged during its meeting this week, though policymakers may consider action at a subsequent gathering in mid-September [1]. New Fed Chair Kevin Walsh has expressed zero tolerance for high inflation [1], yet market expectations suggest a pause in rate adjustments for now.
Inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for five consecutive years, with the rate peaking above 9% in mid-2022 before moderating [1]. Wall Street traders currently assess a 29% probability of a rate increase this week, compared with a 76% likelihood of action in September [1]—a significant shift from a month ago, when only 59% of traders anticipated a September hike [1]. Following a U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows [1]. Oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel last week due to these developments [1], adding uncertainty to the inflation trajectory that will factor into the central bank's decision-making process.