麦肯锡全球研究所发布年度全球资产负债表，2024年全球财富达1.8万亿美元（2.6万亿澳元），较2023年的1.7万亿美元实现增长[1]。然而这一增幅的驱动力令人担忧——全球家庭财富虽增至5.7万亿美元，但其中仅20%来自真实资本形成，多数增长源于纸面收益而非实体经济扩张[1]。
资产价值与经济基本面的脱节现象在全球范围内普遍存在。美国股市估值已达企业净资产的2.4倍，全球股市市值与GDP的比率达到2.8倍，远高于2000年以来24年平均水平的1.9倍[1]。同时，美国企业利润占GDP的比重相对于2000年增加一倍[1]。在此背景下，债务风险也在加剧——中国企业债务达真实资产的80%，超出全球平均50%的水平[1]；美国、日本、意大利、法国、加拿大、比利时、西班牙和英国等发达国家的政府债务均已超过各自GDP的100%[1]。这些失衡现象表明全球资产市场存在明显的泡沫破裂风险。
The McKinsey Global Institute's latest annual balance sheet reveals a troubling disconnect between the world's expanding wealth and underlying economic fundamentals. Global wealth reached $1.8 trillion in 2024, up from $1.7 trillion in 2023, yet the growth is predominantly driven by paper gains rather than genuine economic expansion [1]. Household wealth globally climbed to $5.7 trillion, with only 20 percent originating from actual capital formation [1].
The disconnect between asset valuations and economic reality has grown severe across multiple markets. United States stock market valuations now stand at 2.4 times corporate net assets, while corporate profits as a share of GDP have doubled compared to 2000 levels [1]. Global equities are valued at 2.8 times GDP, a marked increase from the 1.9 times average observed over the past 24 years [1]. Corporate debt in China has reached 80 percent of real assets, significantly exceeding the global average of 50 percent [1]. Government debt pressures are mounting in developed economies, with the United States, Japan, Italy, France, Canada, Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom all carrying debt levels exceeding 100 percent of their respective GDPs [1].