美联储预计中期选举前维持利率不变

市场普遍预期，美联储将在周三举行的会议上维持联邦基金利率不变，这也是美国中期选举前的最后一次利率设定会议 123。尽管央行上月因通胀率持续高于2%的目标而实施了自2023年以来的首次加息，且今年大部分时间年化通胀率超过3%，但官员和专家认为，鉴于选举临近及供应冲击导致的通胀难以通过加息完全解决，美联储将采取观望态度 1。9月通胀率已从8月的3.4%升至3.7%，进一步凸显了物价压力的持续性 1。

此次决策背景复杂，中东伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，本周早些时候油价曾短暂突破每桶117美元，这种由供应冲击引发的通胀限制了货币政策的效力 1。纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授Nicholas Economides指出，即使美联储采取激进措施，经济也无法在选举前完成调整 1。美联储主席Kevin Warsh在9月会议上强调：“我们无法影响任何单个价格……但我们可以确保相对价格的变化不会扩散。” 1

政治因素亦对决策产生微妙影响，唐纳德·特朗普公开表示“美国的利率应该在1%或更低” 1。Warsh作为被特朗普提名的主席人选，其后续动向受到媒体高度关注，他需向公众解释为何在高通胀压力下选择按兵不动 23。分析人士认为，这一决定既是对经济现状的谨慎回应，也体现了央行在选举敏感期的克制立场 123。

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting, marking the final monetary policy decision ahead of the midterm elections. 123 This anticipated pause follows a rate hike implemented last month, which was the first increase since 2023, driven by inflation rates that have remained above the central bank’s 2% target for much of this year, with annualized inflation exceeding 3%. 1 Despite the recent tightening, officials and experts suggest the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach as the election approaches, acknowledging that supply-driven price pressures are difficult to mitigate solely through monetary tools. 1

Current economic data shows September inflation rising to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, complicating the Fed’s balancing act between curbing prices and avoiding political interference during an election cycle. 1 Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will need to articulate the rationale behind holding rates steady while managing expectations for future policy moves. 23 Warsh previously noted in September that the Fed cannot influence individual prices but aims to prevent relative price changes from spreading throughout the economy. 1 External factors such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict involving Iran in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to briefly surge past $117 per barrel earlier this week, further contribute to inflationary pressures that are largely outside the Fed’s direct control. 1

Former President Donald Trump has criticized the current rate levels, stating that "interest rates in America should be 1% or lower." 1 Meanwhile, Nicholas Economides, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, pointed out that even aggressive measures by the Fed would not allow the economy to adjust significantly before the elections take place. 1