澳大利亚统计局数据显示，该国9月年度通胀率由8月的4.0%上升至4.3% 1。这一涨幅主要受汽车燃料价格环比上涨9.4%（同比上涨23.6%）以及国内假日旅行和住宿费用上涨8.0%的推动 1。当月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.6% 1。尽管住房通胀年率从8月的5.7%降至5.2%，但电价同比仍高出12.8% 1。
作为澳洲联储（RBA）更为关注的核心指标，季度修剪均值（Underlying Inflation）上涨1.0%，高于6月的0.8%，折合年化率为3.7% 1。若维持此速度，将远超澳储行设定的2-3%目标区间 1。强劲的数据显著推高了市场对货币政策收紧的预期，澳储行在下周会议加息的概率已从56%升至80% 1。澳储行副行长Andrew Hauser表示通胀前景显著恶化，助理行长Sarah Hunter指出需求相对于供应过强 1。当前现金利率为4.60%，澳储行下次会议定于11月3日召开 1。
此外，Visa、Mastercard和EFTPOS于10月1日取消了刷卡手续费附加费，分析认为这可能促使商家通过提高标价来转嫁成本，预计将对未来通胀产生约0.1%的潜在推升作用 1。
Australia’s annual inflation rate climbed to 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% recorded in August 1. This sharp increase was primarily driven by rising costs for vehicle fuel and holiday travel 1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% month-on-month in September 1, with fuel prices alone jumping 9.4% compared to the previous month and 23.6% year-on-year 1. Domestic holiday travel and accommodation expenses also saw a significant 8.0% rise during the same period 1. While housing inflation eased slightly to an annual rate of 5.2% from 5.7% in August, electricity prices remained elevated at 12.8% higher than the previous year 1.
The quarterly underlying inflation measure, which is closely watched by the central bank, increased by 1.0%, surpassing the 0.8% growth seen in June 1. On an annualized basis, this figure stands at 3.7%, indicating that if current trends persist, inflation will remain well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2–3% 1. Market expectations have shifted accordingly, with the probability of an interest rate hike rising to 80% from 56% earlier 1. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has noted a significant deterioration in the inflation outlook, while Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted that demand remains too strong relative to supply 1. With the current cash rate set at 4.60%, the RBA is scheduled to meet on November 3 to decide on potential policy adjustments 1.
Additionally, changes in payment processing fees may influence future inflation metrics. Visa, Mastercard, and EFTPOS removed surcharges for card transactions effective October 1 1. Analysts estimate that these savings might be passed on through higher shelf prices, potentially contributing approximately 0.1% to inflation 1.
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