中国乘用车市场信息联席会（简称“乘联分会”）秘书长崔东树发文指出，2026年国内汽车市场呈现“超预期低迷”态势，预计全年零售量仅为1850万台 1。这一预测数据不仅远低于2025年的峰值2374万台，甚至低于2020年的谷底水平1929万台 1。数据显示，今年前9个月国内汽车销量累计为1506.6万辆，同比下降22.4%，而同期汽车出口达820.5万辆，同比增长65.8%，呈现出明显的“外热内冷”格局 1。
针对国内车市的深度下跌，崔东树分析认为这是多重因素叠加的结果，主要包括以旧换新补贴标准调整及需求提前释放、美伊战争导致油价高企、AI推动芯片等材料价格上涨、以及政策效力递减和居民消费意愿低迷 1。尽管当前市场面临挑战，但崔东树预期随着冲击因素的逐步修复，2027年国内汽车零售有望小幅回暖，增长区间在0%至5%之间，均值约为2% 1。
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), has described the domestic automotive market in 2026 as unexpectedly sluggish, predicting full-year retail sales will reach only 18.5 million units 1. This projected figure falls significantly short of the historical peak recorded in 2025 at 23.74 million units and is even lower than the trough experienced in 2020, which stood at 19.29 million units 1.
Data from the first nine months of this year reveals a stark divergence between domestic demand and overseas performance, with local sales dropping by 22.4% year-on-year to 15.066 million units 1. In contrast, vehicle exports surged by 65.8% during the same period to reach 8.205 million units, highlighting an external-hot, internal-cold dynamic within the industry 1.
According to Cui, the severe decline in the domestic market stems from a combination of factors, including adjustments to trade-in subsidy standards that led to premature demand release, high oil prices resulting from geopolitical conflicts such as the war between the US and Iran, and rising costs for chips and other materials driven by AI development 1. Additionally, the diminishing effectiveness of policy incentives alongside weak consumer willingness to spend have further suppressed market activity 1. Looking ahead, Cui forecasts a modest recovery in 2027, projecting retail growth in a range of 0% to 5%, with an average expected increase of 2% once the impact of current disruptions subsides 1.
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