金融市场目前隐含的预期是英国央行明年将至少加息4次，把基准利率从3.75%上升至4.75%，甚至可能到2027年12月达到5%1。然而，多位城市经济学家对这一预期提出质疑。德意志银行首席英国经济学家Sanjay Raja表示，"我不认为任何主流预测者认为英国央行会在明年底前加息至5%"1。英国央行首席经济学家Huw Pill也对市场预期持怀疑态度1。
经济学家普遍认为，央行的实际加息幅度将远低于市场定价1。德意志银行的基础情景预测，央行将在明年2月将基准利率提至4.25%，然后保持不变至2027年底1。牛津经济学咨询公司则预测英国央行将在11月和2月各加息25个基点，同样将基准利率提至4.25%1。经济学家指出，由于能源成本上升并未推高其他物价，央行不太可能进行激进的加息周期1。
ING发达市场经济学家James Smith的展望则更为温和，他认为"到明年春天，央行可能会传递积极信号，到年底可能再次开始降息"1。英国央行将在11月5日召开下次会议，普遍预期届时将基准利率提至4%1。
Financial markets are currently pricing in expectations that the Bank of England will raise its base rate from 3.75% to 4.75% or higher by next summer, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach 5% by December 2027.1 However, multiple City economists dispute this outlook as overly optimistic about the pace of monetary tightening.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, stated that "I do not think any mainstream forecasters believe the Bank of England will raise rates to 5% by the end of next year."1 Deutsche Bank's base case scenario projects the central bank will raise the base rate to 4.25% in February and then hold it steady through the end of 2027.1 Meanwhile, Oxford Economics Consulting forecasts the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points in November and again in February, bringing the base rate to 4.25%.1 Economists point to the weakness in underlying inflation as their rationale; despite rising energy costs, other price pressures have remained subdued, suggesting an aggressive tightening cycle is unwarranted.
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, offered a more dovish view, suggesting that "by spring next year, the central bank may deliver positive signals, and by year-end it may begin cutting rates again."1 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has expressed skepticism toward the market's pricing, lending support to the more cautious forecasts.1 The central bank's next meeting is scheduled for November 5, when markets widely expect the base rate to be raised to 4%.1
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