英国9月零售销售环比下降0.4%,远超经济学家预期的0.1%跌幅1。剔除燃油后,销售额环比下滑0.7%,也远差于经济学家预测的0.1%跌幅1。非店铺零售(主要为在线销售)环比下降2.2%,成为零售业表现最差的部门1。纺织品、服装和鞋类商店销售下降0.9%,家用商品销售下滑0.5%,超市下跌0.4%1。汽车燃油销售逆势增长,销售量环比增长2.2%,价值上升6.1%,为3月以来最大月度增幅1。
销售下滑与多重因素相关。异常温暖的天气导致秋冬服装在线销售表现不佳1,同时消费者信心下降速度为新冠疫情以来最快1。Capital Economics首席英国经济学家Paul Dales表示,消费支出和GDP增速将在第四季度和明年第一季度停滞1。
Retail sales in Great Britain contracted significantly in September, with volumes declining 0.4 percent month-on-month, substantially worse than the 0.1 percent decline economists had anticipated 1. Excluding fuel sales, the contraction deepened to 0.7 percent, far exceeding forecasts of a 0.1 percent drop 1. Non-store retail, primarily online sales, experienced the steepest decline at 2.2 percent, reflecting weak autumn and winter clothing purchases attributed to unseasonably warm weather 1. Nearly all retail sectors struggled, with clothing and footwear stores falling 0.9 percent, household goods declining 0.5 percent, and supermarkets dropping 0.4 percent 1. Fuel sales provided the sole bright spot, rising 2.2 percent in volume with values climbing 6.1 percent, marking the largest monthly increase since March 1.
The weakness underscores growing consumer pressures, with confidence dropping at its fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic 1. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, warned that consumer spending and GDP growth face the prospect of stagnation in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of next year 1. August retail data was revised upward to show 0.7 percent month-on-month growth, with quarterly year-on-year growth reaching 0.7 percent 1.
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