法国10年期国债收益率周四升至5.089%，创2022年7月以来最高水平，并首次超过美国国债收益率，这是自2013年以来的首次1。市场波动反映出投资者对法国政府财政状况和政治僵局的深切忧虑。
法国面临严峻的财政挑战，预算赤字占GDP的5.1%，债务占GDP的115.6%1。总统马克龙推进将养老金年龄从62岁提高到64岁的改革计划受阻，国家陷入议会僵局，无法推进必要的支出削减措施1。近日爆发的大规模抗议和暴力冲突凸显社会紧张态势，内政部报告近2400人被逮捕1。
法国与德国的借贷成本差距升至近15年最高1，而市场压力正在向欧洲其他国家蔓延。意大利10年期债券相对德国债券的差幅扩大3.8个基点至116个基点，西班牙的差幅扩大3.1个基点至66个基点，为2025年6月以来最宽1。德意志银行策略师吉姆·瑞德指出，法国政府债券抛售正在向其他国家蔓延1。荷兰国际集团的卡斯腾·布泽斯基表示，欧洲央行"很可能"在下周保持利率不变，并将下次加息决定推迟到12月1。
France's ten-year government bond yield surged past the critical 5 percent threshold on Thursday, reaching 5.089 percent and marking its highest level since July 2022 1. For the first time, French borrowing costs have exceeded those of the United States, a reversal not seen since 2013 1. This shift reflects growing investor concern over France's fiscal crisis, as the country faces severe parliamentary gridlock that has stalled efforts to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and implement spending cuts 1.
The deteriorating financial position underscores deeper structural challenges facing the French economy. The nation's budget deficit stands at 5.1 percent of GDP, while its debt reaches 115.6 percent of GDP 1. The spread between French and German ten-year borrowing costs has widened to a near 15-year high 1. Compounding these pressures, recent weeks have witnessed large-scale protests and violent clashes, with the interior ministry reporting nearly 2,400 arrests 1. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid cautioned that the selloff in French government bonds is beginning to spread to other European nations 1, while ING economist Carsten Brzeski indicated the European Central Bank is "very likely" to hold rates unchanged at its next meeting, with the next rate decision likely postponed to December 1.
The turbulence has extended to other eurozone debt markets, with Italy's ten-year bond spread against German securities widening by 3.8 basis points to 116 basis points, and Spain's spread expanding by 3.1 basis points to 66 basis points—the widest since June 2025 1.
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