特朗普第二任期下美国经济表现复杂：增长与压力并存

BBC近期分析发现，特朗普第二任期内美国经济呈现增长与压力并存的局面。美国GDP年增率达到2.2%，自2024年底以来增长3.2%，超过G7其他国家的表现1。然而，关税政策和地缘政治紧张局势推高了通胀水平，当前通胀率升至3.7%，高于特朗普2025年1月上任时的3%1。

就业市场明显降温。特朗普第二任期以来月均新增就业仅为34000人，远低于拜登末期的122000人1。当前失业率为4.2%，制造业就业人数在9月达到12.6万1。收入分布出现显著不均。中位数家庭收入（通胀调整后）2025年上升2.6%至87460美元，创历史新高1，但中产阶层（中间五分之一家庭）2026年平均比预期少收1700美元，最贫困五分之一少收750美元，而最富有1%则多收12560美元1。

美国金融压力加重。联邦政府赤字2026年9月的年度规模达2万亿美元，占GDP约6%，预计到2030年升至8%以上1。10年期美国国债收益率升至5%以上，为2007年全球金融危机以来最高水平1。房贷成本也在上升，新30年期美国抵押贷款利率升至7.4%，高于特朗普上任时的6.9%1。能源成本方面，柴油每加仑在9月创历史高价6.52美元1。另一方面，美国企业在数据中心建设方面投资增长，8月支出为50亿美元，较特朗普回任时月均水平翻倍1。

The American economy is delivering divergent results across different sectors and income groups during President Trump's second term. The nation's gross domestic product has grown at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, with expansion of 3.2 percent since the end of 2024, outpacing other Group of Seven economies.1 However, this headline growth masks underlying challenges for middle and lower-income households.

Inflation has risen to 3.7 percent, up from 3 percent when Trump took office in January 2025, driven partly by tariffs and geopolitical tensions.1 This increase has eroded purchasing power for most families despite gains at the top end of the income spectrum. The median household income, adjusted for inflation, reached a historic high of 87,460 dollars in 2025, rising 2.6 percent.1 Yet middle-income families—those in the middle fifth of earners—face an average annual income loss of 1,700 dollars compared to earlier projections, while the poorest fifth lose 750 dollars.1 In stark contrast, the wealthiest 1 percent gain an average of 12,560 dollars.1

Labor market momentum has slowed considerably. Monthly job creation has fallen to 34,000 positions under Trump's second term, dramatically lower than the 122,000 average during the final months of the Biden administration.1 The unemployment rate stands at 4.2 percent, with manufacturing employment at 126,000 as of September 2026, slightly below early-term levels.1 Meanwhile, fiscal pressures are mounting: the federal deficit reached 2 trillion dollars in the fiscal year ending September 2026, representing approximately 6 percent of GDP, with projections rising above 8 percent by 2030.1 The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent, the highest level since the 2007 global financial crisis,1 while new 30-year mortgage rates have increased to 7.4 percent from 6.9 percent at Trump's inauguration.1 Diesel prices hit a historic high of 6.52 dollars per gallon in September,1 though corporate investment in data centers showed strength, reaching 5 billion dollars in August, double the monthly average from Trump's return to office.1