美伊暂停军事打击，油价应声回落

美国和伊朗在波斯湾地区暂停军事打击，国际油价随之大幅下跌 1。布伦特原油9月交货合约下跌4.9%至92.02美元/桶，美国基准油9月合约下跌5.6%至84.34美元/桶 1。这一跌幅反映了市场对地缘政治风险缓解的反应，布伦特原油价格较上周触及的102美元/桶高位已大幅回调 1。

中东地缘政治紧张导致全球油价上扬，进而推高能源成本 1。美国汽油平均价格为4.11美元/加仑，较一个月前的3.90美元/加仑上升 1。由于全球约五分之一的石油经由霍尔木兹海峡运出波斯湾，该地区的军事冲突曾引发供应中断的担忧，推升油价并强化了美联储加息预期 1。交易员预计美联储加息概率为36% 1。

Oil prices retreated significantly following a military de-escalation in the Persian Gulf between the United States and Iran. Brent crude for September delivery fell 4.9% to $92.02 per barrel 1, while US benchmark crude slid 5.6% to $84.34 per barrel for the same contract month 1. This marked a sharp decline from the previous week's peak of $102 per barrel for Brent crude, which had surged approximately $30 from the start of the month 1.

The retreat in energy prices came as regional tensions that had previously driven oil costs higher began to ease. The escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical risk had pushed global crude higher, which in turn raised gasoline prices and inflation expectations. The average US gasoline price stood at $4.11 per gallon, up from $3.90 per gallon a month earlier 1. With crude prices moderating, market participants reassessed the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate increases, with traders currently pricing in a 36% probability of another hike 1. Roughly one-fifth of global petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf 1, making stability in the region critical for international energy markets.