国内肉类市场近期呈现明显分化态势，打破了长期以来猪牛价格联动的规律。9月30日，全国猪肉平均价格为21.07元/公斤，比前一周下跌0.5%，同比下跌12.8%，而同期全国牛肉平均价格达77.12元/公斤，比前一周上涨0.4%，同比上涨8.2%1。这一反向走势反映了国内肉类消费结构的深刻调整。
消费端的变化最为明显。2023年至2025年间，我国居民家庭人均猪肉消费量从30.5公斤降至26.6公斤，降幅达12.8%，表明消费者对猪肉的依赖度在逐步下降1。与此同时，牛肉等高品质肉类消费呈现增长态势，推动肉类消费结构趋向更加多元和均衡。
供给侧存在周期性差异。生猪产能处于过剩状态，产量持续增加——2023年国内猪肉产量为5794万吨，2025年增至5938万吨，2026年一季度达1669万吨，同比增长4.2%1。相比之下，国内牛肉产量呈现收缩，上半年产量为339万吨，同比下降1.0%1。
为应对这一态势，政策层面采取了针对性措施。国家实施为期三年的牛肉进口配额管理，全年进口配额为268.8万吨，其中配额内关税为12%，配额外加征55%关税，综合税率最高达67%1。在生猪产能调控方面，全国能繁母猪正常保有量目标从2021年的4100万头左右，逐步调减至2024年的3900万头左右，进一步目标为2026年的3750万头左右1。
China's domestic meat market has departed from its long-standing pattern of synchronized price movements between pork and beef, with the two commodities now experiencing distinctly different trajectories.1 As of September 30, national average pork prices stood at 21.07 yuan per kilogram, declining 0.5 percent from the previous week and falling 12.8 percent year-over-year.1 In contrast, beef prices averaged 77.12 yuan per kilogram during the same period, rising 0.4 percent weekly and gaining 8.2 percent annually.1
This market divergence reflects fundamental shifts in both consumer demand and supply dynamics. Per capita pork consumption among Chinese households dropped from 30.5 kilograms in 2023 to 26.6 kilograms in 2025, a decline of 12.8 percent, signaling a structural transition toward higher-quality meat products.1 Meanwhile, domestic beef production fell 1.0 percent in the first half of the year to 3.39 million tonnes, tightening supply.1 China has implemented a three-year beef import quota management system with in-quota tariffs set at 12 percent and out-of-quota tariffs of 55 percent, reaching a combined rate of up to 67 percent, with an annual import quota of 2.688 million tonnes.1
On the pork side, production volumes have continued expanding, reaching 57.94 million tonnes in 2023 and increasing to 59.38 million tonnes in 2025, with first-quarter 2026 output hitting 16.69 million tonnes, up 4.2 percent year-over-year.1 To manage excess capacity, the government has systematically reduced its target for breeding sows from approximately 41 million head in 2021 to 39 million head by 2024, with further reductions to 37.5 million head planned by 2026.1
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。