一项NBER工作论文分析了2021至2024年挪威税制改革的经济影响1。该改革包括提高股息税率、移除与迁移相关的资本利得税漏洞，以及将商业财富的有效边际税率近乎翻倍1。根据研究，这些政策调整虽然导致约100名高净值个人移居国外，但并未对创业生态和企业投资造成显著冲击。
外迁人口集中在2022至2023年间1，仅占财富分布顶部的0.1%1。研究未发现创业者或发明者因改革而出现显著外移或减少流入的证据1。迁出的企业主其企业在国外仍保持经济活跃，投资规模未见下降1。在挪威本土，无论企业所有人是否移出，改革实施后企业的派息、投资和破产率均无显著变化1。
财政收入方面，不计移民影响时，2021至2024年财富税收增长了75%1；将改革驱动的移民因素纳入考量后，增长率为71.5%1。这表明尽管出现人口流失，改革仍实现了预期的税收目标。
A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper has examined the effects of Norway's significant tax policy changes implemented between 2021 and 2024.1 The reforms included increased dividend taxation rates, the elimination of migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled effective marginal tax rates on business wealth.1
The study found that approximately 100 high-wealth individuals relocated abroad in response to the reforms, with the majority of departures occurring between 2022 and 2023.1 However, these emigrants represented only 0.1 percent of the nation's wealthiest individuals.1 Notably, the research uncovered no significant evidence of outmigration or reduced inflows among entrepreneurs and inventors specifically.1 Furthermore, enterprises owned by those who relocated maintained economic activity levels, with investment rates remaining unchanged following the policy shift.1
On the fiscal side, Norway's wealth tax revenues increased substantially despite the emigration effects.1 Without accounting for migration-driven changes, tax collection grew by 75 percent between 2021 and 2024; when migration effects are factored in, the growth still reached 71.5 percent.1 Across all Norwegian enterprises, regardless of whether their owners had departed, dividend payments, investment levels, and bankruptcy rates showed no significant changes following the reforms.1
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