欧洲央行发布2026年第三季度专业预测调查结果

欧洲央行公布了2026年第三季度专业预测调查的结果，对欧元区经济前景做出了最新评估。1本次调查于7月1日至6日期间进行，共收集了来自53个欧洲金融和非金融机构专家的预测意见。1

调查显示，2026年欧元区标题通胀预期维持在2.7%，预计2027年回落至2.2%，2028年进一步降至2.0%。1核心通胀预期（HICPX）上调0.2个百分点至2.4%，此后两年分别预计为2.2%和2.1%。1长期通胀预期（2031年）保持在2.0%的水平。1

经济增长方面，专业预测人士下调了增速预期。12026年实际GDP增长预期下调0.4个百分点至0.6%；2027年增速预期下调0.1个百分点至1.2%，2028年预计为1.3%。1与此同时，劳动力市场面临压力，2026年和2027年失业率预期均为6.3%，2028年为6.2%，长期失业率预期为6.1%。1

The European Central Bank has published the results of its third-quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters, revealing mixed economic signals for the eurozone.1 The survey, conducted from July 1 to 6, 2026, collected responses from 53 experts representing European financial and non-financial institutions.1

Headline inflation expectations for 2026 remain at 2.7%, while core inflation forecasts have been revised upward to 2.4%, a 0.2 percentage-point increase from the previous survey.1 Looking further ahead, inflation is expected to moderate to 2.2% in 2027 and reach 2.0% in 2028, with long-term inflation expectations holding steady at 2.0% for 2031.1

Economic growth prospects have dimmed considerably, with real GDP growth expectations for 2026 revised downward to 0.6%, a significant 0.4 percentage-point reduction.1 Growth is projected to recover modestly to 1.2% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028, though both figures also reflect downward revisions of 0.1 percentage point from the prior survey.1 Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to rise slightly, with the jobless rate forecast at 6.3% for both 2026 and 2027 before declining marginally to 6.2% in 2028 and 6.1% over the long term.1