欧洲央行发布2026年6月消费者预期调查结果

欧洲央行公布的消费者预期调查显示，欧元区消费者对通胀前景的看法明显改善。1调查数据显示，过去12个月的通胀预期中位数从5月的4.0%下降至6月的3.6%，未来12个月的通胀预期也从3.5%下降至3.0%。1长期通胀预期同样有所回落，三年期预期从2.9%降至2.8%，而五年期预期则保持在2.4%。1

除通胀外，消费者对经济前景的态度也趋于乐观。1未来12个月的经济增长预期从5月的-1.7%改善至6月的-1.4%，12个月后的失业率预期从11.3%下降至11.2%。1名义收入增长预期同步上升，从1.0%上升至1.1%。1然而，消费者对支出增长的预期出现下降，从3.8%降至3.6%，房价增长预期也从3.6%下降至3.4%。1消费者对未来12个月抵押贷款利率的预期为5.0%，高于5月的4.9%。1

本次调查由欧洲央行于2026年6月4日至29日实施，涵盖来自11个欧元区国家的约19,000名成年消费者。1

The European Central Bank released its Consumer Expectations Survey for June 2026, revealing a marked shift in household economic sentiment across the eurozone.1 The survey, conducted from June 4 to 29, 2026, among approximately 19,000 adult consumers across eleven eurozone countries, showed that inflation expectations declined substantially on both near and medium-term horizons.1 Consumers' median expectations for inflation over the past twelve months fell to 3.6 percent in June from 4.0 percent in May, while expectations for the coming twelve months dropped to 3.0 percent from 3.5 percent.1 Three-year inflation expectations eased to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent, though five-year expectations remained stable at 2.4 percent.1

Economic outlook indicators showed improvement across multiple dimensions.1 Consumers upgraded their assessment of economic growth over the next twelve months to minus 1.4 percent from minus 1.7 percent, while unemployment rate expectations declined marginally to 11.2 percent from 11.3 percent.1 Regarding household finances, nominal income growth expectations edged up to 1.1 percent from 1.0 percent, though expected spending growth weakened to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent.1 Property price expectations for the next twelve months decreased to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent, while mortgage rate expectations rose slightly to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent.1