日本經濟新聞社最新調查預測，中國第三季度GDP增速為年增4.4%1，預測區間為4.0%至4.8%1。這已是連續第二個季度的經濟增速低於中國全年4.5%至5.0%的成長目標下限1。房地產市場持續低迷和內需減速成為拖累經濟的主要因素，其中8月社會消費品零售總額年增0.4%，低於7月的0.6%1；今年前8個月新建住宅銷售面積年減13.0%，降幅較前7個月的12.7%進一步擴大1。
儘管短期增速承壓，多數經濟學家認為中國政府將通過財政支出和貨幣寬鬆政策守住4.5%的全年成長目標下限1。中國財政部等部門於9月29日推出刺激住房需求的措施，對首次購房者有條件補貼貸款利息1。瑞穗銀行研究員伊藤秀樹表示，如果沒有追加經濟刺激措施，中國全年經濟成長率將僅為4.3%1；摩根大通則預計中國人民銀行將在10至12月通過降息提振投資和需求1。展望明年，經濟學家預測2026年經濟成長率平均值為4.6%，與3個月前的調查持平1。同時，經濟學家預計2026年底人民幣匯率將為1美元兌6.68元人民幣，較上次調查預估的6.73元升值1。
A survey by Nikkei Inc. indicates that China's third-quarter gross domestic product is estimated to expand at an annual rate of 4.4%, with forecasts ranging from 4.0% to 4.8%1. This marks the second consecutive quarter in which growth has fallen below the government's full-year target range of 4.5% to 5.0%1. The slowdown reflects weakness in the property market and decelerating domestic demand as primary headwinds to economic expansion1.
On the policy front, China's finance ministry and related departments announced stimulus measures on September 29 aimed at bolstering housing demand, including conditional interest-rate subsidies for first-time homebuyers1. August retail sales of consumer goods rose only 0.4% year-on-year, a deceleration from July's 0.6% growth1, while new residential property sales for the first eight months of the year contracted 13.0% annually, widening from the 12.7% decline recorded through July1.
Most economists surveyed remain confident that Beijing will deploy fiscal spending and monetary easing to defend the 4.5% lower bound of its annual growth target1. However, Mizuho Bank researcher Hideki Ito cautioned that without additional stimulus, full-year growth could slip to just 4.3%1. JPMorgan Chase expects the People's Bank of China will reduce interest rates in the October-to-December quarter to support investment and demand1. Looking ahead, the survey's average forecast for 2026 economic growth stands at 4.6%, unchanged from three months prior1, while economists project the yuan will appreciate to 6.68 per U.S. dollar by year-end 2026, compared with the previous survey's estimate of 6.731.
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