澳大利亚央行9月底宣布第四次上调利率后,消费者信心指数大幅下滑至67.2%,创下1990年代末以来的最低纪录1。这次加息将利率推升至2011年以来的最高水平1。根据西太平洋-墨尔本研究所的消费者情绪指数,整体消费者信心较早期下跌约20%1,其中抵押贷款持有者的悲观情绪最为严重,指数仅为77点1。澳大利亚国家银行的周度消费者调查也显示信心下跌约5%至67.1点1。
消费者对家庭财务状况和购房意愿的评估受到最大冲击1。Westpac首席经济预报官Matthew Hassan指出,这是自1990年代早期"灾难性"衰退以来"情绪最弱的最长时期"1。根据AMP经济学家的计算,典型澳大利亚家庭的周汽油账单相比年初增加了20澳元1。失业预期上升1.9%,虽然职位空缺升至两年高位122点,但这并未能消除消费者对经济前景的担忧1。经济学家警告,消费者信心的持续下滑可能导致人均消费进一步收缩1。
Australian consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest point since the late 1990s following the Reserve Bank of Australia's fourth interest rate increase this year 1. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index dropped to 67.2 percent in the aftermath of the central bank's decision announced on September 29, marking a sharp decline of approximately 20 percent from earlier levels 1. According to a separate ANZ weekly consumer survey, sentiment fell around 5 percent to 67.1 points 1.
The deterioration in consumer mood reflects mounting economic pressures facing households. Mortgage holders have grown particularly pessimistic, registering a reading of 77 index points, while assessments of household finances and housing purchase intentions have been hit hardest 1. The typical Australian household has seen its weekly petrol bill rise by 20 Australian dollars compared to the start of the year, according to AMP economists 1. Unemployment expectations have increased by 1.9 percent, though job vacancies have climbed to a two-year high of 122 points 1.
Matthew Hassan, chief economist at Westpac, characterized the current period as "the weakest mood for the longest period" since the "catastrophic" recession of the early 1990s 1. Economists have warned that this erosion of consumer confidence could trigger a further contraction in per capita spending across the nation 1.
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