查莫斯将澳央行加息归咎于中东冲突

澳大利亚财政部长吉姆·查莫斯周一表示，中东冲突引发的通胀压力可能促使澳大利亚央行在周二上调利率1。查莫斯称油价是推高澳大利亚通胀的"大驱动力"1，中东局势对通胀造成"更大压力"1。

澳大利亚四大银行均预期央行将在9月28-29日会议上将现金利率上调25个基点至4.60%1。若此次加息实现，将是今年第四次加息1。目前澳大利亚头条通胀率为3.5%1。

与此同时，政府公布的2025-26财年最终预算结果显示赤字为223亿澳元，较预算估计的283亿澳元减少1。这一改善得益于政府收入较预算增加46亿澳元，同时支出少于预算14亿澳元1。实际政府支出增长率为4.3%，低于上年的5.5%1。

Treasurer Jim Chalmers attributed anticipated inflationary pressures from Middle East conflict to a likely interest rate increase by Australia's central bank, warning that oil prices serve as a major driver of domestic inflation 1. Speaking on Monday, Chalmers indicated that the Reserve Bank of Australia was poised to raise the cash rate on Tuesday, which would mark the fourth increase this year 1.

All four major banks forecast the central bank will lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its September 28-29 meeting 1. The treasurer characterized Middle East tensions as creating "greater pressure" on inflation at a time when Australia's headline inflation rate stood at 3.5% 1.

The government released its final budget outcome for the 2025-26 financial year, showing a deficit of A$22.3 billion—A$6.3 billion better than the estimated A$28.3 billion 1. Government revenues exceeded budget projections by A$4.6 billion while expenditures came in A$1.4 billion under budget 1. Real government spending growth slowed to 4.3%, down from 5.5% in the previous year 1.