尽管此前有关人工智能将重创应届大学毕业生就业机会的担忧广泛存在，但最新研究数据未能印证这一预测。CESifo经济研究机构发布的论文指出，"没有证据表明最近的应届大学毕业生在绝对或相对层面上出现任何显著、广泛的失业或招聘减少"1。研究人员Robert Fairlie和Jane Wu选择聚焦应届毕业生进行分析，原因在于"劳动力需求的变化可能首先通过招聘减少而非现有职员裁减得以体现"1。
虽然入门级岗位短期内未见明显冲击，但AI部署的势头不容忽视。根据人口普查调查数据，报告称企业"以AI替代大量员工工作任务"的情况近期大幅增加1。过去12个月间，AI相关支出和ChatGPT Enterprise代币使用量均呈现广泛上升趋势1。研究者指出，真正的冲击可能会在2026届毕业生中更加显著，因为随着AI能力的提升，企业可能优先选择减少新职位招聘而非裁减资深员工1。
A new research paper from the CESifo Institute for Economic Research has found no evidence of significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates despite earlier concerns about artificial intelligence's impact on entry-level employment 1. Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu focused their analysis on recent graduates because "changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring" 1, making this cohort a key indicator of AI's workplace effects.
The findings arrive amid growing corporate adoption of AI technology. Census surveys show an increasing number of companies "replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI," while AI spending and ChatGPT Enterprise token usage have risen broadly over the past twelve months 1. However, the researchers suggest that the real impact of AI on entry-level positions may become more pronounced among the 2026 graduating class, as companies could prioritize reducing new job openings rather than laying off experienced workers once AI capabilities advance further 1.
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