澳大利亚央行行长米歇尔·布洛克近日表示，人工智能存在泡沫风险，且目前没有证据表明它能提高澳大利亚的经济生产率。1布洛克指出，"所有央行对此都有些担忧"1，尽管澳大利亚政府声称AI将成为解决经济问题的关键。这一表态与财政部长吉姆·查默斯将AI描述为"我们一生中最具变革性的事物"的立场形成对比。1
布洛克援引韩国央行的研究数据指出，采用AI的员工产出相同，但每周工作时间减少1.5小时。1这表明AI可能更多是一个效率工具，而非生产率的直接推动力。政府间报告假设生产率每年改善1.2%，预计到2066年人均经济活动将从当前的99,200澳元增至157,300澳元；但若生产率仅增长0.8%，该数字将仅达136,600澳元。1
在经济其他领域，澳大利亚房地产市场表现低迷，过去三个月房价下跌3.1%。1布洛克指出，移民几乎完全驱动了过去一年的经济增长，但同时对房地产市场造成压力。1交易员预测下周二利率从4.35%上升至4.6%的概率超过90%，这将是14年来的最高水平。1
Australia's Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has cast doubt on artificial intelligence's capacity to boost economic productivity, warning that AI may constitute a financial bubble despite government optimism about the technology's economic potential.1 Bullock stated that "all central banks are a little bit worried about that" regarding AI bubble risks.1
The governor's skepticism contrasts sharply with assertions from Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has characterized AI as "the most transformative thing of our lifetime."1 Research from South Korea's central bank suggests a more modest impact, finding that employees using AI produced the same output while working 1.5 hours fewer per week.1 Australian government intergenerational reports assume productivity will improve by 1.2 percent annually, projecting per capita economic activity to rise from AUD 99,200 today to AUD 157,300 by 2066.1 However, should productivity growth slow to just 0.8 percent, the figure would reach only AUD 136,600 by that year.1
Bullock also highlighted economic pressures facing Australia, noting that immigration has driven nearly all economic growth over the past year while placing strain on the housing market.1 House prices have declined 3.1 percent over the past three months, and traders are pricing in a probability exceeding 90 percent that interest rates will rise from 4.35 percent to 4.6 percent next Tuesday, marking the highest level in 14 years.1
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