巴西工业活动放缓 市场预期年内仍有降息空间

巴西工业活动近期明显放缓。8月工业生产变化指数跌至46.3点，环比下降4.7点，创2015年以来该月最低水平；9月工业投资意愿指数从52.6点下滑至51.3点，为2020年8月以来最低，已连续第四个月下降1。此次调查覆盖1403家企业1。

面对经济活动减速，巴西央行持续实施降息政策。央行已将基准利率从14%下调至13.75%，这是央行连续第五次降息1。据央行最新《焦点报告》，市场预期2026年底基准利率将进一步下调至13.50%，并认为年内仍有进一步降息空间1。经济学家亚历山大·马卢夫指出，近期经济活动减速为央行继续降息提供了空间1。

与此同时，市场对经济增长前景的预期有所调整。2026年国内生产总值增长预期从1.89%调整至1.88%，2027年从1.45%调整至1.43%1；2026年通胀预期由4.90%微升至4.92%1。

Brazil's industrial sector is showing signs of weakness, with the August industrial production index falling to 46.3 points, marking the lowest level for that month since 2015 1. The September industrial investment sentiment index declined to 51.3 points, continuing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since August 2020 1. These figures, drawn from a survey covering 1,403 enterprises, signal growing caution among manufacturers about expansion plans.

In response to the economic slowdown, Brazil's central bank has maintained its easing cycle. The bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 14% to 13.75% on the 16th, marking the fifth consecutive rate reduction 1. Market expectations, as reflected in the central bank's latest Focus Report, project the benchmark rate will decline further to 13.50% by the end of 2026 1. Economist Alexander Maalouf noted that the recent slowdown in economic activity provides room for the central bank to continue lowering rates 1. Economic growth forecasts have also been revised downward, with expectations for 2026 GDP growth adjusted from 1.89% to 1.88%, and 2027 growth expectations lowered from 1.45% to 1.43% 1. Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly raised to 4.92% from 4.90% 1.