美国经济学家最新研究发现，限制低技能外国工人的政策并未为美国工人创造就业机会。1经济学家迈克尔·克莱门茨和伊森·刘易斯分析了H-2B签证抽签制度的实验数据，发现未能获得外国工人的企业并未转而招聘美国工人，而是整体产出下降，招聘总人数减少。1
H-2B签证项目年度上限为66,000份，该上限由1990年《移民法》规定，已有36年未曾修订。1供需失衡状况严重：2022年下半年，雇主申请136,555名工人，但仅有33,000个签证名额可用。1研究人员以472家企业在2021-2022年度的抽签数据为样本进行分析。1
研究结果显示，未获得签证的企业其H-2B工人雇佣数下降约50%。1在获得签证的企业中，H-2B就业人数翻倍时企业收入增长仅约五分之一，收入增长弹性系数为0.20。1相比之下，这些企业的设备和结构投资弹性系数达到1.5-2.1。1
对美国低技能工人就业的影响方面，研究未发现显著的替代效应，就业效应为零或呈正向。1在农村企业的子样本中，该弹性系数为0.61。1研究测算H-2B工人与美国工人的替代弹性系数为0.8-2.2。1该研究已于2026年7月发表于《美国经济学杂志：应用经济学》。1
American economists have published research challenging the assumption that restricting low-skilled foreign workers generates employment opportunities for U.S. citizens.1 The study, conducted by analyzing experimental data from the H-2B visa lottery system, found that companies denied access to foreign workers did not hire American replacements; instead, they reduced overall output and total hiring.1
The H-2B visa program, established by the 1990 Immigration Act, caps annual visas at 66,000—a limit unchanged for 36 years.1 In the second half of 2022, employers applied for 136,555 workers but only 33,000 visa slots were available.1 Examining 472 enterprises that participated in the 2021-2022 lottery, researchers found that firms which failed to secure visas reduced their H-2B worker employment by approximately 50 percent.1 Companies receiving visa allocations saw their revenues grow by approximately one-fifth when H-2B employment doubled, indicating revenue elasticity of 0.20.1
The impact on American workers proved negligible or positive overall.1 Capital investment showed greater responsiveness, with equipment and structural investment elasticity ranging from 1.5 to 2.1, suggesting firms adjusted their capital-to-labor ratios when foreign workers became unavailable.1 A subsample of rural enterprises demonstrated employment elasticity of 0.61 for American workers, though substitution elasticity between H-2B and U.S. workers ranged between 0.8 and 2.2 across the broader dataset.1 The findings were published in July 2026 in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.1
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