秘鲁因厄尔尼诺影响下调今年经济增长预期

秘鲁中央储备银行行长贝拉尔德因厄尔尼诺现象造成的影响超出预期，宣布下调经济增长预期。1该行将2026年经济增长预期从3.4%下调至3.2%，同时将2027年增长预期从3.2%下调至3.0%。1通胀方面，2026年通胀预期被上调至4.2%。1

厄尔尼诺引发的异常气候对秘鲁经济造成显著冲击。1该行下调了对第一产业部门的增长预期，其中渔业和农业受到的影响尤为突出。1预测显示，未来发生更大强度气候事件的可能性有所上升。1

Peru's central bank has revised down its economic growth projections for the coming years due to stronger-than-expected effects from the El Niño phenomenon. Central Bank President Belarde cited the outsized climate impact as the reason for the forecast adjustments 1.

The bank lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%, while simultaneously raising its inflation projection for the same year to 4.2% 1. Looking further ahead, the 2027 growth forecast was also reduced from 3.2% to 3.0% 1. According to the central bank, the likelihood of more severe climate events has increased 1.

The El Niño-driven climate anomalies have particularly disrupted Peru's primary sectors, forcing the bank to reduce growth expectations for industries including fishing and agriculture 1.